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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (26287)	2/1/2002 11:20:23 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

bit of deja vu.... nytimes.com smartstockinvestor.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (26287)	2/2/2002 3:59:48 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

ZH- That 1982 NYT article is really interesting. Even more so is how it regularly gets carted out every time we get into a severe down-leg. My view is that your predictions of a continuing bear market are probably right but only because it is becoming clearer by the day that there is in fact absolutely no recovery in business. Yes there are all sorts of signs and signals and good looking surveys of different aspects including things from Chicago and Consumer Confidence. But these surveys do not go out and place orders they are only surveys. MSFT, INTC, IBM etc came out and just said they see no increase in business this year. The reduction in Cap Ex for the chip manufacturing industry for this year is over $10bn including reductions from the biggies like TSMC, INTC AMAT etc. The total reduction in that industry is a very big number. As for Japan incredible as it seems it looks like it is going to actually implode economically. I never thought it would be possible to acutally see this happen. The reason is simple. The Japanese collectively have a big deposit in the bank but the bank is bust. The size of their deposit is simply massive it is material inrelation to the Japanse eononomy. It is like the S&L crisis on steroids. No Japanese Prime Minister can/is able politically to tell the entire Japanese people who are very good and diligent savers that their savings are worthless. End of story. I don't care who goes to talk to the Japnese Prime Minister, Mr Bush or Paul Simon (whoever he might be) or even Mr G. So Japan will just carry on on unitl 'something' happens. By something I mean something that the Japanese can't do anything about and that triggers something nasty there. For instance a big bank just has to go bust for some reason or some instiution there can't raise money or there is a Coup D'Etat and the army takes over. The only good thing on the entire World horizon is China. Maybe it and Korea can carry on growing and eventually render Japan less relevant to the World economy. That however isn't on the agenda for this year. What is on the agenda for this year is the gradual realization that once again we got taken for a ride about the 2H recovery. Believe it or not two years in a row we fell for that story. Even the three card trick guys on street corners don't expect to con people twice in a row. Whatever might happen next year this year is more of last year. Maybe psycholigically that is going to be worse since the damage to expectations is going to be bad. So your predictions of more lows and 're-testing' lows all year long looks to me highly likely. If by some miracle the economy does rebound and that does show up in earnings statements then its a whole different game. The bear market will be over. Until we actually see that though the bear is still here and will continue to grind away at peoples portfolios for the third straight year. Best, L