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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (80856)	2/2/2002 9:18:44 AM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Prophet, I guess technically, you did win that bet with carl. How does it feel to best the great one here? <g> Carl was foolish to make that bet with you without a time limit. If there is any value in faster PCs, in time, we will see that, sdram will be more expensive than ddr, just like retail edo (per MB) is more expensive than sdram. But this is not a given that sdram will disappear as quick as DDR is now overpriced from greedy gouging. The lesson from the consumer is very clear here : performance at any price is no longer a bankable mantra in PC land. Without a vaid killer-app, that performance segment is in a death-spiral. Which is why DDR-400 or DDR-II are not sure winners. (DDR-333 sticks are already here, all you need to do is get some PC-2400 or PC-2100 sticks and set higher latency settings, some of them still works if you're adventurous) But if you ask me, today, very few people even need anything above PC-133 sdram. Heck, even celerons are plenty of speed and 1GHz PIIIs will easily beat a 1.5GHz P4. Soon (say 3-9 months), rimms will likely be very cheap too as they clear the channel, but after that, like edo, it will go up in price as they become scarce and production shrinks to edo levels. When edo was being cleared out, as sdram took hold, there as a period of time when stores were giving out edo sticks as promotions. Clearance sales are great for good deals. To verify this, in the next few months, you only have to walk in and ask the small white box pc retail shops to check if they are in rimm inventory clearance mode. Or not. Perhaps it has already started. In the white box retail stores, I think we have seen i850 mobo SKUs shrink very rapidly. What surprises me most is the tenacity of the belief that rimm sticks still will have any significant presence in PC-land in the next 12 months. If this belief is as pervasive as indications here, then there is still some downside to rmbs, in spite of its beat down price. The last time it tested 6.66, it went very quickly, what happens in the next 24 days? SbH

To: The Prophet who wrote (80856)	2/4/2002 12:42:52 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>>Okay, the only restriction is that RDRAM prices are allowed to briefly dip below that limit due to over production issues, but such gluts will not last longer than 3 months.<< prophet, did this sub 36% premium last more than 3 months?

To: The Prophet who wrote (80856)	6/23/2002 2:19:13 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; I guess it's even obvious to you by now that RDRAM is never going to get cheap. You haven't bothered me about the RDRAM/DDR statistics since March or April. Now that RDRAM is selling at a 160% premium to DDR your prediction a year ago that it was going to be cheaper "soon" looks pretty silly, doesn't it. Forgot about it? Here's a reminder of what you said: The Prophet, March 26, 2001 Well, we agree on something. The next step is to agree that if RDRAM comes down in price, it makes little sense for INTC to release a DDR chipset either. #reply-15563080 This is another favorite: The Prophet, March 17, 2001 Bilow, you miss the point. The money I made on that runup was not illusory. I am not a bull or a bear. It's all about valuation. One should be careful about gloating at halftime - sometimes the game ends differently than how it started. Let me add that I read the Markman ruling and I'm willing to wager that the judge's construction of "Bus" will be reversed on appeal - you, as a person skilled in the art, would not have read bus to have been limited to multiplexed bus. #reply-15519794 Also see: Like you, my bet is premised on the risk/reward of RDRAM alone, which I believe more than justifies the current valuation. #reply-15521311 The Prophet, March 17, 2001 I wish, however, that I had listened to Zeev and got in around 15, instead of average of 22. [Ouch!] #reply-15520775 In response to my laugh over the fact that Stuart Steele bought into RMBS at the Markman announcement (at around $17 per share: I assure you, Stuart will have the last laugh. Amazing that he will have made not one, but two fortunes on the Bus. #reply-15519784 The Prophet, March 17, 2001 Actually, the Prophet bought more today, and he has a very long memory. We have not seen the last of Bilow post #15517865 #reply-15519777 The Prophet, March 15, 2001 I am sure the decision was leaked and it will be define the bus narrowly, as reported. In my view, RMBS is worth roughly 30-40 even with just RDRAM. Given that District Court rulings on Markman claims are reversed approx. 50% of the time, and given that there are several other patent claims at issue in the case, risk tolerant investors, who have been patiently waiting for this moment, should be ready to jump in. However, Zeev says that from a technical standpoint, we could fall to the teens. Tricky arguing with the omniscient turnips. #reply-15508922 The Prophet, March 13, 2001 No offense, Bilow, but clearly you are a communist. Who other than the free market is capable of determining what royalty any inventor should charge for his/her work. Your socialist leanings help explain why you are so angry that a little company came up with a better way to make money. Conversely, most capitalists would say, "more power to them." I now understand you better. #reply-15495995 -- Carl P.S. Here's a reminder that you predicted that Rambus would win the "petition for writ of mandamus" that would save them from having their lawyers deposed for the crime-fraud exception. #reply-15563088 Since then Rambus has been convicted of fraud, been sued by the FTC, and dropped another 90%. Here you are saying that you're not worried about how Rambus' lawyer David Monahan was doing in the Infineon trial: #reply-15587040 Here you are suggesting that NDAs would save Rambus' butt: #reply-15592264 And that late Infineon documents "may help RMBS signficantly before a jury": #reply-15523813 So what's going on here? Are you really that bad of a lawyer? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! LOL!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!