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To: limtex who wrote (112049)	2/2/2002 11:59:01 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 152472

capitalism works universally, even in deflation liquidators are profiting handsomely from heightened demand bankruptcy lawyers are having a field day unemployment state clerks are being hired as the economy makes the transition from flat on its back to merely crawling, it will have to endure a series of commodity price shocks watch the dollar - bond - gold triangle with Japanese bank failure, Euro currency launch, and US Treasury now a net bond seller with deficits... we now will see a USdollar slide amidst a rate creep up it will undermine the recovery all year long two bubbles remain if there is ANYTHING that I have learned in the past two years it is that all remaining bubbles will be disposed of... eventually REAL ESTATE, USDOLLAR the dollar is destined for a 10% slide versus Euro real estate will stagnate as mortgage rates creep up lower dollar will aid in corporate exporting stagnant pricing power will hurt consumer spending it will likely be a near draw wash yeah, 2ndHalf Recovery later this year in jeopardy I still a real slow recovery though then next year maybe more continuation of slow recovery this V-shaped recovery theory is pure bullshit it flies in the face of all reality and evidence the recovery might be built upon productive usage of excess capacity those who suffer might be those who supply such equipment NOT those who use such equipment, quite the contrary no need to buy more techy stuff, just need to use it all Japan will shock the world soon banks bigger than JPMorgan will go kaput finally I mean finally, the longawaited denouement Japan will slowly become relegated to a Pacific HasBeen later, Jim