Some comments about the Index Weekend Signals.
As anyone reading these should know, these are the musings of a private investor. Mostly I write these out, to help me organize my own thoughts. Please don't anyone make investment decisions based on (or influenced by) my ramblings.
Dow Daily
Three days ago, the Dow daily didn't look good, IMO.
ADX had started to rise and MACD was falling. Bad sign.
Stochastic, which had been rising bullishly, had turned back down.
Chaikin Money Flow had been negative, since about the 2nd week of January.
The sell signal (20 day and DMI) that had been generated in mid-January was still intact.
Then the market rallied on the incredibly good news that Ol' Smirk thought the rate of deterioration was slowing.
Hallelujah! I sure feel better, knowing that.
Now, the price (9907) is just above the 20 day MA (9903), and the ADX is falling again (watch Stochastic) with the Stochastic rising.
I'm being extremely cautious here, as I find this market pattern unreliable and unpredictable.
Dow Weekly
The price continues to track the lower blue trendline of the narrower descending channel, shown on my chart.
ADX, MACD histogram, and Stochastic were all falling, until this past week. Now, maybe the ADX will turn up, and maybe the MACD will begin a positive recovery - but, maybe not.
The chart currently reflects the indecision of the Dow.
It's a long way from appearing bullish.
Nasdaq Daily
Stuck in that range between 1900 and 1930.
Sell signal (20 day and DMI) still intact.
Rising ADX (maybe) and falling MACD momentum lines.
Not good.
Negative Chaikin Money Flow since Christmas.
If there's any hope in this chart, it would be in the Stochastic, rising out of the oversold zone; however, look back at the Stochastic just prior to September. Looks similar, and the Nasdaq dropped about 400 points, beginning about August 27th.
There's no clear evidence, that I can see, suggesting the market direction from here. The chart looks more negative than positive.
Nasdaq Weekly
ADX is falling, suggesting the Stochastic is the indicator to watch, and Stochastic is dropping out of the overbought zone, suggesting the market is heading down.
It's possible the chart will reverse from here, and the market will begin a bullish run, but if that happens, IMO, it will have been unpredictable, from this chart.
TSE300 Daily
My signals on the DMI are becoming quite colourful, as we've had four signal changes, so far this year.
ADX is still dropping, and Stochastic reversed in the latter part of the week - it's now rising and bullish, and unreliable.
At least for me, it's obvious that the individual sectors are more important, at this time, than the TSE300 index.
TSE300 Weekly
Only one of the three Weekly Exchange Indexes that is still showing a Buy Signal. A very, very thin DMI confirmation of that signal.
ADX is falling, and Stochastic appears poised to drop down out of the overbought zone. That's usually a bearish signal, or in my case, a sell alert signal.
The MACD momentum lines are rising.
If the ADX should begin an uptrend, the rising MACD would be bullish.
This chart doesn't look promising to me.
For the time being, I'll continue to be very cautious and watch the sectors more than the index.
Capital preservation and patience, still necessary.
The charts discussed are available on my web site, under Index Charts.
www3.sympatico.ca
Cush |
