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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: exp who wrote (26391)	2/2/2002 9:33:45 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<<2) Fair Value of SPX= Fair value of SPX P/E x 2002 SPX eps = 20 x 53.97 = 1,079 (using $53.97 2002 SPX eps estimate by I/B/E/S Intnl; eps=earnings per share)>> GS dropped their SPX projection to $42 with a notable lack of fanfare---where would the 42 dollar area place the fair value of SPX????

To: exp who wrote (26391)	2/2/2002 9:45:44 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

the Fed model in itself is a Bull graded measure,as opposed to bear graded.It is a system forged to maintain a Bull outlook---in short it is a subjective measure divorced of objectivity and awash in speculation---and as i point out where Bill Gross brings forth,the model is no longer valid due to virtual vanishment of stock dividends--but alas this Bill Gross view is outside the realm of ordinary analysis to integrate into the fed model as it would give disturbing results--so is avoided.

To: exp who wrote (26391)	2/2/2002 9:52:31 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<<Arguments FOR HIGHER Fair Value of NAZ: (a) 2002 is the year of emerging from a recession so the eps are still depressed, therefore 2003 eps may be a better gauge of "normal" tech eps (b) many NDX and other NAZ companies are still at an early stage of growth so they have negative eps which may become positive eps in the future (c) A higher than 50% premium over SPX P/E may be afforded to NAZ P/E due to faster than historically assumed growth in earnings>> this is what is called FUDGERY or varied tricks to push an oversized round peg into an undersized square hole--if it don't fit use a sledge hammer--great science, NOT!:)

To: exp who wrote (26391)	2/3/2002 8:05:06 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi exp, thanks for posting your thoughts on what you think the fair value for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ might be. I think that the 2002 earnings for the S&P 500 will be closer to $45 not $53. It may even be lower -- its so tough to tell now-a-days. So I would put fair value at 900 - 1000. The NASDAQ ? lol, Who knows ? 30% overvalued if you ask me, but the NASDAQ is not a very valuation-based market -- is it ? I just look at the chart and think that the 1600 - 1650 area offers strong support. Some things to consider: 1. The stock markets have been undergoing their correction for almost 2 years now. I actually use mid April 2000 as the end of the bull market -- wasn't that when the NASDAQ dropped 1000 points intraday ? Anyway -- in "1929 Great Depression" terms, the markets are in Sept 1931. When did the stock market bottom during the Great Depression ? I thought it was in 1932 or 1933, but let's face it, this ain't the Great Depression we're going through. Either way, from a purely time and psychology perspective, we are probably almost through the current correction. 6 more months, maybe ? Rising employment numbers, and a declining or steady unemployment percentage would be a nice comfirmation. 2. The volatility index indicators for Sept 20 - 21 were so high that I personally feel it would take another extraordinary situation to experience them again. They also came a few weeks after unusually high VIX readings which led many technicians to believe that the markets had bottomed in August. I consider Sept 20 - 21 to have been the capitulation that technicians look for in a market bottom. 3. No one's gonna be dumb enough to sell at the bottom this time around. Warning !! Since 1998, I have consistently underestimated the stupidity of the investing public and the sliminess of the so-called investment community. But I guess I'm saying that I don't expect a re-test of the Sept 21 lows. But S&P 500 of 1000ish and NASDAQ of 1600ish are definitely possible. The economy's in the early stages of recovery mode now -- but its gonna operate in a much lower gear than it did from 1995 - 1999. And IMO, there are still plenty of NASDAQ stock bankruptcies and de-listings to come. Just my thoughts, Chris