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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (26414)2/3/2002 9:18:50 AM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
Rich: SEBL $35.7, fair value: $41(PEG=2) $31(PEG=1.5) see:
SEBL future eps estimates are as follows (using the StockSelector site): 02 $.53, 03 .68, 04 .99, 05 1.43. Compound rate of eps growth from 02 ($.53) to 05 ($1.43) is 39% (focusing here on the "post-recession" rate of growth). With PEG=2 stock price=2 x 39 x .53 = $41, with PEG=1.5 stock price=1.5 x 39 x .53 = $31. So, it appears that SEBL is approximately fairly valued (assuming that projected eps are valid and not "too" pro-forma) as it has PEG= 35.7/(39 x.53)= 1.73. On the other hand, SEBL forward 02 P/E=35.7/.53=67 is definitely on the high side.



To: Rich1 who wrote (26414)2/3/2002 11:32:12 AM
From: ajtj99  Respond to of 99280
 
Rich, I thought that SEBL story was fluff. His software told him in February that sales were slowing down. Well, in January we heard Chambers say that in December it was like someone turned off a light. We heard that from many other tech and non-tech industries also. It took good 'ol Tom a good month more than most before he had a grasp of the obvious.


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