Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (26427)	2/3/2002 10:26:19 AM
From: exp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

JAN SPX record: since 1950 EVERY UP YR preceded by UP JAN Jan 2002 was down on DOW SPX NAZ NDX.

To: sylvester80 who wrote (26427)	2/3/2002 11:51:28 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Since 1950, the Standard & Poor's 500 (.SPX) has climbed in 38 years and dropped in 14. Of the down years, 11 stumbled out of the blocks in January. When January finished in the black, the winning years followed in all but three. So you're basically saying the January indicator is accurate only 80% of the time. Let me present another view of the data: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up 38 years and down 11 years. Or up 80% of the time and down 20% of the time. We've just had 2 back to back down years. So statistically, we are "overdue" for an up year. More important, there has NEVER been 3 down years in a row. As long as we're gambling .... my interpretation of the statistics suggests that 2002 will be an up year. And my interpretation is better than the January indicator because I can site a NEVER condition. BTW -- these statistics are a joke. They are meaningless. Roulette and dice statistics are meaningful because the ingoing parameters that influence the outcome don't change. The ingoing parameters that influence the stock market differ from year to year. Regards, Chris