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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jackjc who wrote (1516)	2/3/2002 1:44:52 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<NGT/AAS:final JV, merger, and results?> yes, yes and yes. <very few choices to add shares.> Largely going to depend on PM prices now. But remember that the leverage in a POG move from 285 to 305 is huge, so I really don't think these juniors are getting ahead of themselves. IF POG faded by the same amount, that's a different story as we would give a chunk of these gains up. I lean towards at least solid prices with a fair chance for a $20 move that would add at least $8 to $10 an ounce to the take out price of deposits with $140-$160 cash costs (). You can do the math on that for our plays. There simply isn't that kind of leverage in any producer. And if we don't get the POG move, I still feel there will be a premium takeout in the junior sector soon, that will generate additional sector buying interest. Add ons? You are probably correct that now is not the time to be running out and establishing a substantial junior portfolio and fortunately we don't have too <g>. Nor is it time to lighten up much either. I've gotten rid of mistakes like GEO, and GLDR. I sold third of my CBD at 1.40 in my IRA where I don't have to pay taxes and half my TVX at 55 where I have a tax loss. I'm going to sell the other long term gain, IRA BAY I hold if it clears 3 bucks without a lot more help from POS (at least 4.70). I'm trying to avoid a bunch of short term capital gains. Other than that I'm holding pat on a large commitment to the sector. Buys? I still like Tenke at this price, but they don't return e mails, and I was POed at their last IR which I felt was misleading (made big production about season's activity at Vicuna, and then totally failed to deliver) so I'll probably just pass on getting more. You know the little intangibles, including my proclivity to get testy about things like that. Rule of thumb: if you aren't planning an activity don't put out IR telling investors you are. I have an AON bid in on MNP at 8 also. IMR can be bought in this little dip to the mid 40's, and ditto GNG at that price. I don't think IP will stay at 20 with copper rallying. I think there is going to be some excitement in the various Ontario and environs plays that are being launched. The problem is that there are a number of them and I've struggled separating the wheat from the chaff. It doesn't appear that much good analyst work (from my sources) is being done there, so I need ideas? These are rarely mentioned on this thread: Rubicon? Freewest? Canadian Royalties? Fort Knox? Virginia? Altius? Donner? Opinions? (): here is what AU is willing to spend to bring on new reserves and production. This is just the capex, doesn't even include exploration. At Cripple Creek (Colo.) they are in the process of spending $195 million to produce off a new reserve of 2.8 million oz with a $174 cash cost. That's an all in cost of about $244. At Mponeng they are spending $117 m. to mine a new reserve of 3 million oz with a 156 cc. That's an all in (before exploration) of about $196.