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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13855)2/4/2002 11:57:42 AM
From: doug5y  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78717
 
ELN down 40% today on Enronitis, lower guidance, and two downgrades. Must be close to a value play now....

The question : what's the catalyst?



To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13855)2/4/2002 12:13:35 PM
From: TimbaBear  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78717
 
Regarding operating leases....some of my thoughts:

If I first view this situation from a personal financial planning paradigm, how would I account for rent in my equations? If I were on a month-to-month lease instead of a multi-year lease would it make any difference from an analysis of my finances? Would the difference it make be significant in understanding my cash flow?

I think that the lease amount in this situation would go against current liabilities but I would not count anything against long-term liabilities, unless the purpose of the accounting was for bankruptcy filing (in which case there would be more long-term liability in a longer term lease).

Taking the personal perspective to the business paradigm, similar thinking applies. If I am attempting to arrive at a total liabilities number in a bankruptcy situation, then I would factor in the long term leases(although the total amount may be discounted somewhat under the presumption that a portion of the obligation would be discharged), in all other scenarios I would only count the current portion.

My rationale is that the lease is just a method of standardizing the rate and term of the monthly or yearly rental situation. It serves to benefit both lessee and landlord. If I would only count a yearly lease against current obligations, why would I treat a multi-year agreement any differently?

I'm at work, so admittedly I haven't thought through this response as much as perhaps I would have over the weekend, but I think this is the essence of my position. I am always willing to modify the positions however if another, clearer method of thinking is presented.

Timba



To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13855)2/4/2002 6:48:30 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78717
 
Jeff B., Jim C., Mark M., Bob R: Thanks all for comments related to GPS.

I talked with my wife’s friend and conveyed a summary of thread responses regarding Gap prospects and other factors that affect a decision, such as the portion that GPS is of the portfolio, prudent asset allocation, and risk tolerance.

She tells me the amount of GPS is only a small amount – she had sold most of it when the stock got to the $70’s, after she held through several stock splits. Her big concern is that GPS does not become another K-Mart now and GPS stock go to 99 cents.

(I don’t like it that I now have the feeling this “novice” investor might be a more successful investor than I am. –g-
And maybe on days like today I ought to be asking HER for advice on what to do. –g-
Must be that Lynch thing – she bought the one mall company she knew, and she held on until the right time to sell.)

She says based on what she feels and what she hears from me (us) now, she will hold her shares “for a while”.

Aside: In our conversation I said that I don’t own GAP and that there were no people on the thread who said they were enthused about the stock now or Gap business or clothes. Then I mentioned to her of reading here where a couple of people do shop –Coach, Abercrombie, etc., and I asked this woman about having alternative choices for her money if she did sell her GAP shares. I said for example that I own Quicksilver (Roxy brand), Gadzooks, and Skechers. She commented that Quicksilver stock ought to work out well – its Roxy is VERY popular with her kids and their friends. I mention this fwiw – which is not much – very anecdotal. Nevertheless, I’m hoping she is as right about that stock as she apparently has been about GPS.

Thanks again,

Paul.