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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (26687)	2/4/2002 12:42:37 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Ork: Re: "Sept lows? that would garner some news." Yes, Sept. lows or more. Don't know. It is a growing possibility. Yes, it will require some news but the news should be there to "react" to. Complacency reigns. I am basing this thinking, in part, on the extent of the decline following the post ten day > 1.50 trin signal in April and August. I see more of a parallel here to September. Right now I see the decline tracking that one pretty much. Some have argued that this will be like the period of May through August starting now. Well, the duration of that bear market rally would mean that we are crossing into September in February here. Perhaps all the market could do during this period was to be trendless with some blips up that were not as powerful as the prior rally. And while I see other arguments for this outcome, the ten day > 1.50 trin signal is a problem for that outcome. It has rang the past two times at the beginning of a hard fall and does not seem to signal a continuation of a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, at least not previously. And so the possibility of a visit to the lows in short order is out there in my mind. It will grow if we close below 1850 this week.