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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (26898)	2/4/2002 5:55:43 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Prescient comments from Barton Biggs on CNBC: Brief summary as follows: 1. Market decline is coincident with decreasing popularity of Goerge Dubyah and the fading illusion of bipartisanship in Congress brought on by Sept. 11. Interestingly, this was a subtle point made by Jim Rogers (former Quantum hedge fund guru) upon his return from his world-wide trip. When Maria Bartiromo interviewed him about one month ago, he mentioned that he thought markets would decline this year because President Bush's popularity had peaked. His prescient observation is that market declines often accompanying declining presidential popularity ratings. (My opinion, FWIW --look for George Dubyah's ratings to continue to decline as the Republican administration becomes more closely associated with Enron in the minds of the public and VP Cheney maintains his pompous stance of "separation of powers" in stonewalling the GAO investigation into Enron and the administration). 2. Biggs also notes that the Enron effect is serious, long-lasting, and will continue to cast a pall on the market. The effect is that it will lead to stricter standards by accounting firms due to fear of litigation and that this will cause numerous companies to report less than stellar earnings throughout the year. 3. Market is still very overvalued. 4. Biggs sees a retest of the September 22 lows, with a trading range between those lows and the Dec./January highs over the next 6-12 months until these accounting issues are resolved and investor confidence is restored to the market.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (26898)	2/4/2002 6:10:35 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

It is a tough one, minor declines often terminate with one or two sequential readings of -1000 on the Naz, but you got to use that carefully and with other parameters, mind you, after a prolonged period of not having such extreme negative readings, the first few are typically an indication of a major change in the wind direction. Major bottoms, often require more than 4 such consecutive reading and preferably few of these in the -1200 range or worst level. Reading of -1500 or more are often associated with bottoms like the May and the December 2000 bottoms, and the April and the September 2001 bottoms. Today's tick was barely qualifying, thus my belief that we are going to go more or less straight down to the mid 1700, the max upside is now probably at 1880. Zeev