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To: robert b furman who wrote (2675)	2/4/2002 6:38:22 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 7827

Warren Buffet once said that "diversification is protection against ignorance; it is not necessary for those who know what they are doing." But for some reason CNBC never gives tidbits of knowledge like this, possibly because their sponsors would be horrified if people actually started to think for themselves! Nobody ever got rich in mutual funds, or through diversification for that matter. Once wealth is had, then diversification can serve to protect it. I love it when callers to CNBC say "I am taking my life savings and starting a pizza parlor" or something similar. Invariably, the anchor and guest will say "way to go" when in fact most businesses are doomed to fail. Yet these same people would advise against putting a large percentage into one company, which is profitable, a leader in its sector, has excellent management, and has a cash hoard to boot. Highly illogical yet this is conventional thinking on the (for lack of a better term) financial channel known as CNBC. Brian

To: robert b furman who wrote (2675)	2/6/2002 2:52:56 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 7827

PCs, cell phones to resume double-digit growth in 2002, says Semico Research Semiconductor Business News (02/06/02 14:29 p.m. EST) MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- Semico Research Corp. here announced that it is not backing away from its bullish 19% growth forecast for the semiconductor industry in 2002 over 2001. The Phoenix-based market research firm also said the separate PC and cellular-phone markets are expected to rebound after a horrific year in 2001 and resume double-digit growth rates in 2002. The projections are welcomed news for the IC industry, which experienced its worst downturn in 2001. "The market will innovate its way out of the doldrums this year," declared Jim Feldham, president of Semico. "We also think the semiconductor market will return to a more normal cycles going forward," Feldham said during a presentation here on Tuesday. Late last year, Semico set its forecast for semiconductor growth in 2002 at about 19%. Its forecast is more bullish than estimates from other research firms, which are generally calling for slight growth in chip revenues next year, in the range of 1-to-6% from 2001. Driving the IC growth in 2002 will include the PC, cellular phone, consumer, other product sectors, according to Semico. In the cell-phone market, for example, worldwide shipments of handsets fell by 7-10% last year, from 420 million units in 2000, to between 380-to-390 million units in 2001, according to Semico. In 2002, the worldwide handset market is expected to grow 20-25% and reach 480 million units, according to Semico. The new, high-end "smart phones" are expected to grow at a faster pace, while the "plain-vanilla" handset market is mature and slowing down, Feldham said. He also projected 9-10% growth in the PC market for 2002, after negative growth in 2001. The desktop PC market is projected to grow 4-5% in 2002 over 2001, while the notebook computer market is expected to jump 13% this year, he said. Other hot markets for chips include global positioning systems (GPS), MP3, home entertainment, and home networking, he said. But some communications markets, especially the wireline segment, will remain soft for the remainder of 2002, he added.

To: robert b furman who wrote (2675)	2/7/2002 1:40:32 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7827

Samsung expects `explosive' growth THE CHIPS ARE UP: The long downturn in the memory market looks to be turning around, with South Korea's top two DRAM makers saying they expect better days ahead Samsung Electronics Co, the world's largest microchip maker, has forecast explosive growth for memory devices as a new technological revolution starts. The South Korean firm's memory division president Hwang Chang-gyu said nearly all major electronic systems would be transformed to "an all-digital format" by 2005, causing explosive growth for solid-state memory devices. Growth in memory demand is now being driven by increased memory capacity in systems such as personal computers, servers and mobile phones, he told an international technology seminar in San Francisco Tuesday, Samsung said in a statement.DRAM prices * Spot prices for 128-megabit DRAM now stand at around US$4, a four-fold increase from last November. * Hynix yesterday announced it had raised contract prices for the 128Mbit SDRAM chips it sells to its long-term strategic customers by about 20 percent to 25 percent to US$4 each. * With the higher spot and contract prices, both Hynix and Samsung expect to be profitable soon. "The growth curve will begin to skyrocket in the year 2005," he said, adding memory consumption would expand from increased PC functions, game product applications and new generation mobile phones with video capabilities. "From 2005 to 2010, digital televisions, home networking systems and other digital consumer electronic products are expected to become commonplace, boosting memory consumption sharply." Samsung, which controlled 27 percent of the global microchip market last year in sales terms, has raised prices of DRAM chips. Hwang suggested memory sales would enter a new high growth phase of 20 percent every year due to the digital revolution that would have major repercussions for the chip industry. He also forecast a change in memory storage media saying the use of solid-state memory cards currently used in digital cameras and MP3 players would expand to include all digital products. "Around 2005, digital video, for example, will be stored in 5-Gigabyte memory cards, and memory cards will completely replace CDs and other rotating optical media sometime thereafter," he said. Memory, which currently runs at 400MHz or less, will increase in speed almost fourfold to reach 1.5GHz by 2010, with storage density growing by 80 times, he said. Memory functions evolves to "fusion memory," a total memory solution, boosting all the system functions users would want, he said. Fusion memory will integrate the high capacity of DRAM, the high speed of SRAM, and the non-volatile storage capability of Flash memory plus a logic element, he said. The paradigm will change to "one based on a memory perspective that accommodates diverse users," he said. Hwang's theory represents a departure from the previous view that semiconductor technology and use were primarily developed around CPU. *********************************************** taipeitimes.com