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To: Lucretius who wrote (148709)	2/5/2002 8:12:50 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 436258

treasurypoint.com Talking It Up While our favorite coincident indicators offer a somewhat mixed read on the economy, reflation seems to get the benefit of the doubt for now. One fairly influential tailwind for this theme may be investor psychology. In other words, we would argue that there has definitely been an aggressive recovery bias that has engulfed the mainstream press. All one has to do is turn on CNBC and listen to Larry Kudlow of all people touting technology stocks. Heck, even the commercials make you want to jump back in and start buying on margin, after wiping the tears from your eyes first of course. Sarcasm aside, we would also note that an article in last Friday's Wall Street Journal smacked of optimism, highlighting the likelihood of both a fast and more powerful than expected global recovery. snip......Sowing what we have reaped by the strong dollar policy. Pack The Bags Finally, while the heightened accounting scrutiny in the wake of the Enron debacle has everyone dissecting corporate earnings, we have instead applied a greater focus to some of the accompanying restructuring details. Of interest, Black and Decker Corp., the largest US power tools maker, said last week that following a fourth quarter loss, it will be unable to meet analysts' estimates for either first quarter or full-year earnings. To cushion profit margins going forward however, the company plans to close three plants in the US and shift some of its power-tool production to Mexico, China and the Czech Republic. Not surprisingly, all three of these countries offer cheaper and more flexible production platforms. Of course, the shift in foreign direct investment trends to low-wage producers highlights our concern about the deflationary leanings of the global slowdown, particularly when considering the inclination of some countries (think Japan) to resist this hollowing out by engaging in competitive devaluation