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Technology Stocks : RF Micro Devices (RFMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (4074)	2/5/2002 2:33:11 PM
From: tuck	Respond to of 4849

chojiro, I suspect today's weakness relative to other semiconductor stocks has to do with Sprint PCS' guidance. Here's a snip: >>CHICAGO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Sprint PCS Group (NYSE:PCS - news), the nation's fourth-largest wireless firm, on Monday posted a narrower fourth-quarter net loss and higher revenues from a year earlier but cut its outlook for the number of net new customers expected. ``Fourth quarter results for the PCS Group and the industry suggest that growth in the near-term will be slower than anticipated just a few months ago,'' Sprint PCS parent company Sprint Corp. (NYSE:FON - news)said in a news release. The move confirmed comments and results of slowing subscriber growth by other wireless operators. Sprint PCS said it now estimates 3 million or more net new subscribers in 2002 compared with its previous estimate of 3.6 million to 3.7 million. Analysts' estimates had been for about 3.2 million to 3.3 million net new subscribers. The company added 1.11 million direct customers in the fourth quarter, fewer than the 1.3 million analysts expected, due to lower-than-normal holiday sales. It ended 2002 with a base of 13.6 million direct customers. Including resale and affiliate customers, it had 15.8 million customers. The company's fourth quarter results and 2002 outlook are in line with those from other wireless operators, which have been seen growth slow due to the economy and the rising wireless penetration rate in the United States. With about 45 percent of the U.S. population owning cell phones, adding new customers becomes increasingly difficult. In addition, analysts said the churn rate, or the percentage of subscribers discontinuing service, is likely to raise concerns. ``Investors are going to be very skeptical about the churn unfortunately,'' Thomas Lee, wireless analyst with J.P. Morgan said. ``That's going to be the one issue that nags the company for the first half of this year,'' he said. Sprint PCS in a conference call with analysts said it expected the churn rate to rise in the first quarter from 3 percent before stabilizing at an average of about 3 percent for 2002. It blamed the increasing churn rate on nonpayment by customers and a greater turnover among sub-prime customers, or those with poorer credit ratings. Sprint PCS in May had rolled out a new plan designed for sub-prime customers, called Clear Pay, which sets a spending limit. The company reported significantly greater net new subscribers in the third quarter due to the plan, but analysts have been skeptical about its ability to keep customers. ``(Clear Pay customers) are a concern,'' Steve Mygrant, fund manager of Fifth Third Technology Fund, said. ``You're extending credit to people who don't have quite as much as money and have bad debt,'' he said although he added that he believed Sprint PCS' results and outlook were generally in line.<< snip Some have mentioned BBOX as a possible Enronish situation. Busy with other stuff today, but I'd like to check that out; it looks pretty pricey compared to RFMD. Cheers, Tuck

To: chojiro who wrote (4074)	2/5/2002 3:21:14 PM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4849

LOL...I lied....couldnt help myself<ggg>....added at the lows today.....more ATML stock and 04 $10 Leaps......even added some jdsu...yea, yea...she's dead and bla bla bla....she still has an awesome looking balance sheet, should hopefully be able to weather the storm if it lasts a while and I think has as good a chance of doubling to 13ish alot faster then we will see naz at 4000, dow at 20,000, s&p at 2000.......jdsu may be dead for awhile, but there sure is alot of unlit fiber out there......and jdsu has been very honest in saying "business sucks and we dont know when it will rebound ".....so I think when they say "we have seen a bottom", people will want to own that stock....and at low $6's, I hope the worst is built in.....also added to some fdry...very diverse customer base and product line...lots of industry awards...I think fdry also has ability to double to $13ish before the major comps pull a double.....but then again...I may be at the homeless shelter in a year or two if this crap keeps up and we dont get some upward movement in my beaten and beaten and beaten some more, techy's.......nextel looks interesting to me for several reasons...at a low right now......meanwhile customer base is growing...quickly...they have been rated as having the "most loyal" customers in the industry....everywhere I go, everyday...I see more and more nextel users.... They own the direct connect technology and with their new agreements with motorola and qcom, they will have direct connect worldwide in 2 years...and anybody wanting to offer that service is gonna have to pay royalties to nextel......but I guess the biggest factor I like the stock is the fact that I see with my own eyes...more and more users popping up everywhere, and they all swear by the service.....valuation concerns, but then again, if she grows like she thinks she can, and seems to be doing...debt shouldnt be a problem for long, and they good be a goliath in the wireless world.........anyway....as you can see, I am grabbing some stocks at or close to their lows...they may go lower, but I will be patient with a long term horizon and hope we dont pull a japan and stay cooked goose for 20 years........will look to add to others, but am not adding unless things get back to previous lows, or close to them.......