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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (27307)	2/5/2002 7:10:05 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

That's what I'm looking for, jj. I think we may gap down and drop slightly below today's lows, but anything is possible. The .382 re-trace has still not been hit on the COMP, which is around 1826. That gives us about 12-points on the downside to cushion us in the AM. I think we get some relief from there, but that down channel on the 15-minute is pretty steep. The upper line of the 15-minute NDX channel is at about 1475 tomorrow early, and it is dropping pretty quickly (about 25-30 points a day). That does not leave much upside room if we are going to bounce, unless it gets taken out like it nearly did this afternoon. The lower line of this channel drops pretty steeply, but we have touched it and dropped below it early this AM. That lower line is at about NDX 1430 tomorrow AM, which is a support level similar to COMP 1793. The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.99, and from what I can gather we normally don't have more than 2 or 3 days in a row with readings above 0.85 before it drops. The only recent exception I can recall is the week prior to and after Sept. 11. Every day seemed to be over 0.85. This is the 2nd day over 0.85 this week, indicating we should see a bounce possibly tomorrow sometime or Thursday at the latest. If it happens Thursday, we could already be at NDX 1400, which should give substantial support. The VIX and VXN are also pretty low. If we hold 1826, I doubt we'll get much of a bounce before plunging through again. I guess you could make COMP 1850-55 our strong overhead resistance now, IMO. I'll be looking to re-put this at that level if we get there. That's a big if right now. Then again, we could just drop all the way to NDX 1430 before a substantial bounce.