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To: fedhead who wrote (149094)	2/5/2002 8:46:08 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 436258

If Dines turns bearish on gold please let us know.

To: fedhead who wrote (149094)	2/5/2002 9:19:49 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

Anindo, that's a very difficult question. it really depends on how things develop, i.e. one will have to continuously adapt to the situation as it evolves. one thing is certain: this rally looks a lot more convincing than the previous ones. to illustrate what i mean with the adaptation comment, look e.g. at Harmony. 3 months ago, we didn't know the Rand would collapse so swiftly. we also didn't know that Harmony would be so lucky to buy SA based mines from Anglo for a song just before the Rand got whacked (making the properties twice as valuable in the process). we didn't know that Japanese savers would rediscover the merits of gold ownership in a flash. so i'm saying there are probably lots more things out there that can be filed under 'we don't know yet'. what we DO know now is that hedging is rapidly becoming immensely unpopular. it's almost a 180 degree shift in attitudes, brought on by the shrinking in the contango (which is to a large part a function of falling interest rates) and revolting shareholders. we know that this means about 400 tons of annual supply the market could count on from at least '95 to '99 aren't going to be there. so we have a friendly environment for gold, even before we consider all the sh*t hitting the fan in the financial realm. as long as that's he case, we can look forward to a new equilibrium price being established, barring any sentiment denting announcements courtesy of the CBs (which btw. will be powerless to stop a true bull market, per past experience). regarding Dines, well we have had a few currency crises since he first talked about the possibility, most prominently the Asian / Russian ones, and more recently Turkey and Argentina. in fact, almost all currencies except the USD have had problems to some extent. the USD is the last shell game still running smoothly, but its issuer is issuing like there was no tomorrow. the proliferation of USD based financial claims is truly astounding...sometimes it feels like i'm in a parallel universe where certain economic laws we have taken for granted have been suspended indefinitely. sort of like the Nasdaq felt in qu.1 2000. if you think this will probably end badly, you shouldn't be too modest with your expectations. of course the PoG has seen so many failed rallies that modesty of expectations has become a natural gold bug reflex. and now that we're talking about how high they can go (an unusual topic all by itself) they're probably going to get whacked. but longer term i think there's more potential here.