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To: Les H who wrote (1433)	2/5/2002 11:14:56 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29596

interesting site wallacebane.com S&P P/E versus earnings wallacebane.com

To: Les H who wrote (1433)	2/6/2002 11:54:15 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

Les, i see you're showing Feb 8 as a red red yellow...is this a sell signal, or do these signals mark I/T lows? from CB... According the VIX and VIXN, an intermediate term decline has begun at the early January highs on the S&P and Nasdaq. Both the VIX and VIXN where at very low levels for over a month. They should not go to extreme high level at the next low. The VIX may approach 40 or higher and the VIXN may approach 70 or higher at the next bottom. The VIXN is still at a low level according to history closing at 46.74 yesterday. Not a good sign for intermediate term. All the Best, Tim Ord

To: Les H who wrote (1433)	2/9/2002 8:52:07 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

9-month cycle cycle tendencies 10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low Sep 21 start start start 965 none Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 Mar 5 green green yellow Mar 28 yellow green yellow Apr 19 red yellow red May 14 green yellow red Jun 6 yellow red red Jun 28 red red red 22-week cycle Sep 21 SPX trough Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest Feb 22 SPX trough 70% probability crest area is Nov 30 (week 10) to Jan 4 (week 15) 26-week Dow cycle troughs Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379 Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks sample size 6 total 156 weeks average 26 weeks st dev 2 weeks Feb 22, 01 22 weeks minus 2 standard deviations Mar 22, 01 26 weeks average cycle length Apr 19, 01 30 weeks plus 2 standard deviations