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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13877)2/8/2002 10:46:01 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78740
 
On XICO, not a value stock, note this post of mine yesterday in response to some short who showed up:

messages.yahoo.com

You should read recent releases and listen to the conference call, with some frames of reference:

-The historical track record was due to founder and former CEO R. Klein who is no longer affiliated with the company in any way.

-He was replaced by Dan McCranie current Chairman of the Board and recently retired #2 man at CY. Also added to Board was Manny Hernandez, current CFO of CY.

-McCranie brought to the company CEO Lou DiNardo from a senior position at LLTC where he was in charge of some Mixed Signal product lines (sales background). He got 600,000 options at $3.75, which I have heard he needs many times the current XICO price to make up for what he left behind at LLTC. Also, several other high level people have been recruited from first class companies. These recent guys came in the recession with their eyes wide open.

-These folks are bringing product development leadership and sales expertise to a company which owns (key point) unexploited, proprietary Intellectual Property, which will enable them to address NEW large markets - and potentially do very well despite the economy (in 2003).

-Products are being announced regularly now and new-IP is starting to be publicized (listen to CC). But in this industry there is AT LEAST a 6-month lead time from product announcement to material sales.

-Recent private convertible note was issued convertible just above $11 to institutions, mostly to Templeton, to ensure they have the needed financial resources to succeed - although they had a good cash position already.

-For most of this year I believe reported results will be unspectacular - but announcements will make the future increasingly clear as the year goes on.

A valuation parallel that I like is CYMI, which is losing minor money now but is making new highs because the Street believes they can make $4 per share in the next recovery. In my opinion, Xicor is not there yet in terms of full understanding and recognition of its potential by the Street, but it is covered and it presents to the Street regularly. For example, I believe there is a presentation at Robertson Stephens later this month.

I have owned the stock for 8 years and my view of the future stock price is well said by XicoBull on Yahoo, who has been involved as long as I have:

messages.yahoo.com

The Yahoo thread is excellent except for the occasional short who shows up - many sophisticated investors who know the company and industry very well.

I have recommended to my own family that they buy the stock, on an increasing scale if the stock declines further, starting now and ending at $6.

Hope, this helps.



To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13877)6/14/2002 2:56:32 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78740
 
LTBG - Easing back in with small starting position @8.70. Positives: Strong balance sheet with $4+ in cash will allow them to survive & buy co's/assets during downturn; EV multiples below 5; Credit services may be less affected than wireless industry by price war.
Negatives: Industry in accelerating funk; concentrated dependence, ERICY PrePay contract up early 03.