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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Raymond Duray who wrote (5499)2/6/2002 9:21:08 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Nice write up on the financial situation in Japan.

Definitely one to be bookmarked.

Hawk



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (5499)2/7/2002 1:41:37 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Hi Ray, the first part of that article reads a lot like a post that Henry mentioned several weeks ago.

I could not get the external url to open up, it may later today.

Japan is a concern. I was talking about the the US autocompanies being some of those vocalizing angst regarding the strong USD earlier today, and Briefing mentions a New letter to Bush.

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08:25 ET 10-year: -11/32..4.969%....GNMAs: unch....$-¥: 133.64....Euro-$: 0.8663

The market has had little reaction to news that the chief executive officers of the big three US auto makers sent a letter to the White House last week, asking President Bush to express concern about yen weakness during his upcoming visit to Japan. According to Stephen Collins, president of the Automotive Trade Policy Council, which represents U.S. automakers, a weak yen is "creating a competitive disadvantage for U.S. companies and hurting the restoration of the recovery in the manufacturing sector." The market's seeming nonchalance towards the heightened complaints about the competitive disadvantages of a strong dollar is not particularly surprising. Treasury Secretary O'Neill has repeatedly stressed the fact that good companies do not live and die on the back of exchange rate movements, while we remain focused on the ability of a strong currency to mandate reform, as GM recently announced major productivity improvements in the design of new vehicles. A strong currency also provides a tailwind for foreign direct investment, as US automakers have been trying to gain market share in Asia (think GM's planned purchase of Korea's Daewoo Motor Corp.).





08:05 ET 10-year: -5/32..4.944%....GNMAs: unch....$-¥: 133.65....Euro-$: 0.8664

Japanese politicians have again tried to put some of the onus for recovery on the shoulders of the BoJ. Just yesterday, the MoF's Kuroda said that while G7 finance ministers are unlikely to spend much time this weekend discussing the recent bout of yen weakness, they are likely to focus on the efforts of the BoJ to combat deflation. Not to be outdone, PM Koizumi said today that the "if rumors trigger a credit crunch, the Bank of Japan should provide ample liquidity into the banking system". While we would not be surprised to see the BoJ announce an increase in its monthly rinban operations to dampen any potential criticism, the modestly bearish implications for the yen will do nothing to help the Japanese economy. As we have argued before, while yen weakness offers some reprieve for risk aversion on the back of its inverse correlation with the Nikkei, its longer-term ability to misallocate resources should not be underestimated.