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To: sun-tzu who wrote (149396)	2/6/2002 2:24:24 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

some folks do fuel switch but the spread is already pretty wide isn't it??? I know about electric power, but what about others who fuel switch -- seriously, I don't have a feel for this.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (149396)	2/6/2002 2:27:37 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<an abrupt cut-off in the oil supply will raise the price of NG. >> Depends how abrupt and what price oil. There is already a lot of fuel switching going on with Henry Hub below $2. So there would be some more on the margin, but its already happening. Storage is almost full. Unless we get a cold snap NG stays cheap for a while. That said, production is declining (I think gas directed land rigs are down like 37% from the top over the summer; Patterson for example has 125 of its 317 rigs working) so by end summer we might be in a situation (especially if its hot this summer) where we're in a volatile supply/demand scenario. From my point of view, too many people are bullish on NG (the NG-related stocks if not the commodity). Too many people, IMHO, for it to be the correct thesis. Cheers