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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (10162)	2/6/2002 3:53:40 PM
From: ScotMcI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Moreover, one down year in PC sales hardly indicates the permanent death of the PC market. IMO, it mostly indicates a major recession, combined with a flood of almost-new surplus PCs from dot.bombs, combined with fairly recent upgrades due to Y2K. While I don't expect the death of the PC market, I think it's going to be flat for the forseeable future, absent some hot new use for PCs. I base this on my own experience. I'm a bigtime computer geek and I've been sticking with my 2-year-old 733 MHz system because there's been no compelling reason to upgrade. It's been sufficient for anything I've wanted to do since I bought it, and that includes some fairly intensive uses like gaming, Photoshop, database/website constuction, programming, etc. If somebody like me is happy with an older machine, then the average user is definitely not going to find a need for a new one, and I think the vast majority of PCs sold now are going to be for new purchases, not replacements for existing computers. The only thing I see on the horizon that could change the situation is digital video, and I don't notice a lot of interest from consumers in that yet. Just my personal 2 cents.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (10162)	2/7/2002 3:46:35 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

ASPs typically go up, actually. Though the cost/function goes down, the price per chip goes up. A P4 costs more than a P3, a 256 MB DRAM costs more than a 128 MB DRAM. ASP means for the same chip. And it eventually goes to zero. Do they still sell 4MB DRAM? No other industry (except software) could survive this type of deflation if it wasn't for the demand growth. Moreover, one* down year in PC sales hardly indicates the permanent death of the PC market* Didn't say that, just that the days of 20 percent growth seem to be over. Has any other invention had double dip hypergrowth? Maybe when China starts making $200 PC's that growth will return. All the inventions you mentioned I don't believe caused a PC upgrade cycle. And corporations definitely don't want that crap on their systems. Yes, the share of chips in PC's has been declining and will continue to decline. It just has a long way to go from 65%.