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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (14581)	2/6/2002 6:16:34 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mike, good post. Thanks for taking the trouble to express your views. I just have a couple of points. <Fixed investments in buildings, technology, and software decreased 12.8% last quarter. This is a bigger decrease from the 8.5% in the third quarter. This number is critical. When it first showed a decline in the 3rd quarter of 2000 I told you that this was a sign that the economy was entering a recession. This number represents corporate investment in technology and the growth of corporations themsleves. When this number shrinks it means that companies are disinvesting themselves from the economy. They are cutting costs. > I agree that this is a key point in monitoring turnaround and that consumers can't keep spending if corporations are losing ground. But part of that decrease would be corporations getting big discounts on normal purchases. How much do you think that 12.8% would be due to discounts due to recession and the effort by suppliers to maintain sales and how much of it would represent actual unit sales decline in litres, kilograms, teraflops, square metres, cars etc? The other point I disagree with is that Uncle Al's monetary policy caused the internet boom and bust. But we won't persuade each other on that. Mqurice