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To: GraceZ who wrote (149538)	2/7/2002 9:24:31 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<How good are the drilling companies at predicting the future cash flow from their rigs? >> I would say that Patterson in particular is a very good deal-maker. They have consistently bought assets cheap over the years. Which is why I'd be willing to pay $2.0-$2.5mm per rig when the going private-market value is $1.5mm, but I don't think that Patterson is SO smart (or alternatively that the seller of 17 rigs was SO dumb) that I'd be willing to pay $4.0-$4.5mm per rig which is what is reflected by the current market cap. As I said to Sun yesterday, IF you are bullish on NG then the way to play is long NG futures, as the EQUITIES already discount a lot of NG price appreciation. Cheers