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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dalin who wrote (715)	2/6/2002 10:10:13 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 208204

That was the worst failure of the model since 3 Oct 01... the first day I actually use it :) Prediction for 7 Feb is +3.8% Sounds crazy, especially as Globex is down, but look at the up in both HK and Japan and only a couple of points off here. On 3 Oct the model said to get short when the NDX rose 7.5%. It failed big time on 24 Sep also I have now done the simulation from 21 Sep forward. Starting with $10000 and making a bunch of assumptions about frictionless trades etc. which are unrealistic, trading outside US market hours (in Aus or on Globex) and assuming you could trade unleveraged stock not options or futures and that Globex stayed exactly at the US market close until the new session the next day etc. etc. there would be about a $1000 drawdown in the first couple of weeks but since then the account would have risen to $39000 as of yesterday. Seems like that was a particularly good stretch for the model :) Those assumptions are not true, but even if you got half of that it would be very very good. David