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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (43083)	2/7/2002 8:14:13 PM
From: quasi-geezer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

where did everyone go today ... Am I the only one suffering ???

To: Dave Gore who wrote (43083)	2/7/2002 8:17:04 PM
From: SpinCity1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

the market has become like a contemptible km blue light special. the problem is most of what's for sale today will be cheaper at tomorrows rummage sale. anyone who has had their eyes wide open can tell you how we managed to get to this point but where do we go from here? I am going to go out on a limb and give you my brainless opinion (imbo) on how this is going to play out. The market needs investment money to make it go up. Remember the market can only go up if there is money being put into it. There has to be more buyers than sellers...Too much money got sucked down the hole last year. Unfortunately, I think that many of the people who bought stocks at their highs did not sell them before their losses became catastrophic. Those who bought low and sold high rebought on the way down and the consequences were equally disastrous. Therefore, I do not think that there is any large infusion of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter the market. This has been apparent to me on a number of occasions during the last few weeks when we were not able to sustain an rally of any kind. I also think that the funds are not getting people showing up at their doors with suitcases full of money saying invest this. Many of the average joe investors, middle income folks, bought near the top. They will not be handing over any money anytime soon. On the other hand I have to decide how much more money is going to leave the market. I still think we are going to see more out flows of money in the short term future. So what I see is a market that has no new money coming into it and more money leaving. What would make people put more money into the market? If people thought that there were bargains to be had, they might put some money into those stocks. I myself think that some companies offer good very long term values at this time such as F, BUD, AMR, UAL (but these could all be easily cut in half) other companies such as FDX will find out how quickly a 40 cent stamp and and email can replace them. SBUX will find out that people think the almost free maxwell house coffee at home tastes as good as a 4.50 cent cup of coffee. That leads me to believe that we move down further. Investors are no longer going to be willing to put up with the bs accounting practices that run wild in our country. In fact the accountants and the feds got it wrong. Payables need to be on an accrual basis and income on a cash basis. After all it is not sold until you have the money in your hand is it? For a bottom I am now looking at below 1700. How much below? Could make you toss your cookies. At this point people who bought right after 9/11 and did not take profits are watching their profits shrink or fade to nothing. If they think they are going to lose money they will pull the trigger and sell quickly. We are now getting close to the point were many of these stocks "investments" are getting to the "lose" money point for their owners so watch for dramatic sell waves as these former investors but their shares back on the shelves. The market needs a reason to move up and I can not for the life of me come up with any reasons that would be enough to cause a change of direction. When you see companies announcing "good" news and the stock ends up in the red for the day you know we have a problem. Rather than buying stocks with "good" news and hoping to get a point I switched my trading habits last year, now I look for companies with bad news and sell those. What points good news used to be worth bad news is surely worth. On the other hand, we could go back into the all things are equal mode. That means that all stocks are equally bad so what the hell pick one that sounds good and buy it. People are so scared of being left out of any "rally" they will pull the trigger and buy at the slightest sign of the bull or will they??