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To: Ian@SI who wrote (10202)	2/7/2002 9:52:31 PM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 10921

I can readily accept that certain non silicon niche applications may well appear during my investing lifetime. I don't expect to see silicon totally replaced any time soon and certainly not during my investment years. {I do plan to live to a ripe old age<g>.} I never prognosticated the death of silicon. After spending a billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars investing in silicon, "if it ain't broke, no reason to fix it now." But that doesn't mean a niche won't just creep up and bite a little piece of the sandwich sooner than you think either. Interesting, but not yet of investing significance, IMO. Not something I would choose to dispute with you.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (10202)	2/9/2002 12:55:14 PM
From: ScotMcI	Respond to of 10921

I don't expect to see silicon totally replaced any time soon and certainly not during my investment years. {I do plan to live to a ripe old age<g>.} Don't be so sure. We've gone from vacuum tubes to transistors in my lifetime. The Next Big Thing might overtake us unexpectedly.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (10202)	2/9/2002 4:06:11 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, in this respect, I completely agree with you. During the late 60' I was doing my first post doc. at Battelle Memorial Institute, and we came up with a "new" technology that "in principle" could obviate the need for ultra pure (defect free was not yet a requirement) single crystal silicon (in essence, in lieu of modulating concentration of minority charge carriers with fixed mobility, we modulated the mobility of majority charge carriers <US Pat # 3,686,096, which expired before it ever saw a single practical application>). Well the big guns a Battelle rushed to all the big Semi companies at the time, and came back with the following "story", Si based semiconductors technology has already a $ billion invested in it (and not $100 B the current figure), purity and material cost of single crystals are not the issue, come to us with a cheap way of packaging the stuff (by the way they were still at the phase of discrete devices then (g).) Not only are the technologies that Semibear alludes to years out in the future and do not have behind them the massive funding required to get down the "learning curve", they will face the simple reality that all these monolayer molecular devices need to be connected with each other, and if these "connections" are order of magnitude larger then the active devices themselves, what is the advantage? Zeev