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To: John Madarasz who wrote (1451)	2/7/2002 10:40:55 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29597

Based on recent IT troughs for the Dow/SPX, I expect the window for the market bottom will be from February 22 to April 19, or March 22 plus or minus 4 weeks. I haven't checked the lengths of the peaks-to-troughs but they appear to range from 6 weeks to 13 weeks. So, the week of Feb 22 is likely to be the earliest date and would also fit with the tendency for market to trough in the middle of the week after options expiration and before the end of the month markup. Also like the March date as that date is also the last date for settlement for the this quarter for Japan institutions to close their books. I think they're on T+5. I've noticed the last several times in March and September when the repatriation was an issue, the market bottomed on the 5th business day before the end of the month. The April period may be the last low, if any. 26-week Dow cycle troughs Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379 Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks sample size 6 total 156 weeks average 26 weeks st dev 2 weeks Feb 22, 01 22 weeks minus 2 standard deviations Mar 22, 01 26 weeks average cycle length Apr 19, 01 30 weeks plus 2 standard deviations