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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OX who wrote (5527)	2/13/2002 9:52:46 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi OX, Briefing will talk about correlations that there and are real, but those correlations can and do break down completely. I'm sure you'll remember how briefing was seeing a positive correlation between the USD and crude prices. And they had a plausible reason for the correlation. Since Crude is priced in USDollars and paid for with USD balances. The higher the price of oil the greater demand for USDollars in the global markets. It made sense. But then Crude prices collapses very shortly after 9-11, falling from above 30 all the way to $17 and change. But the USD stayed very strong over that time period. I don't think we'll see a retest of the 10-31-01 lows in Yield in the 10 Year note and the 30 year bond. I think we've probably put in the low for the long term cycle. If we do see a retest of the 10-31-01 top in Treasury Prices It will be due to another large and vicious decline in the US stockmarket and to some additional significant global weakness. John