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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (764)	2/8/2002 8:52:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206985

Morning David, Looks to me like your ascending triangle chart needs to fall apart as most ascending triangles are bearish and represent congestion patterns. With most breakout leading stocks having failed and lately sold down hard on on volume, I think we need to shake out and scare before we rise.It is especially apparent in the stochastic - killer!! cres.anu.edu.au On your next chart - (my favorite) it looks to be the right setup in that we can have a weak four (a natural bounce up from recent oversold condition) and then have a scary 5 down - which will need to momentarily break supports - look like the world is going into the abyss and then fundamental economic recovery data will allow some wonderful entry points on some now resized companies to begin the climb up to profitability after a 2 year hyatus. This provides the needed shakeout to put our stock prices increase in sink with an economic recovery.This recovery is already cooked in the books as a huge inventory sell off has already taken place. Once our resized firms go back to production vs selloff of excesses - margins will pop up much faster than the doomsayers ever imagined (at a surprisingly low level of production) - keep in mind money is all but free and before it's cost came out of margins- now the reduction of financing inventory in the channel has been reduced by 2/3(regardless of production levels) - this will fall straight to the bottom line of all companies - thus the quicker than expected bounce to profitability on lower volume. cres.anu.edu.au My bet is a weak 4 and a nasty 5 with (don't know if this is possible) an extended diagonal just to stretch out the negative bottom. That would set us up for a nice reversal,allow this "Enronitis" to go away,enable the helpful offsets to get dissolved out of the future(build us a more oversold environment) and most importantly give us the necessary scary shake out to really remove the weak bears and set up a bear trap that already is at record levels of commitment. I think we need to see the bears become complacent and cocky.Once they'll be saying "I'm so smart I told you so " the next rally, after the final shakeout will pop the chit out of their smiling grins before they know it. Thanks for your excellent work - the charts are a wonderful tool to better visualize both your work and your outstanding capability of questioning the read and developing alternate scenarios(the real value of E-wave to me is to provide that open mind).Once you get an open mind to alternate scenarios - one can panic much quicker.gggg Thanks Bob