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To: Cooters who wrote (112465)	2/8/2002 9:58:21 AM
From: Jeff Vayda	Respond to of 152472

Cooters, funny how Nokia failed to recognize the fact that they rode in on the strength of a 'state' mandated technology. The fact that GSM was superior to amps was a lucky break for them. They do not enjoy the same lucky break with CDMA. In their analysis, they seemed to miss the important role the march of technology plays. They say they reviewed the computer case, but they missed this point? Nokia concluded that the mobile phone market is different from the PC industry where the key building blocks -- such as Intel <INTC.O> chips, Microsoft <MSFT.O> software and CD-ROM drives -- are all nearly identical and can be bought on the open market. Now they have... figured out what it needed to do to stay ahead of the pack. It needed to excel in three areas, pictured as three corners of a triangle: the product itself, the brand name, and finally production and distribution. I think there is a bunch of wishful thinking that the Brand Name leg of the triangle will be able to hold up the rest. A past reputation might hold up for one or two product cycles, then once it goes south - it becomes a liability much faster and stays much longer. Right now Nokia has just about spent their last dollar of capital they banked while they were on the way up. They are playing games with the numbers now, claiming they are maintaining or increasing market share by reducing the overall numbers of phones they predict the world will sell. They have peaked. They know it and have begun to address the issue, but this statement is an example that they still dont get it. "From a volume player we are now becoming a volume and value player," Alahuhta said, adding the company will launch dozens of new models this year, most targeted at long-term users. You can't do volume and target 'long term' users. Jeff Vayda