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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (60213)	2/8/2002 2:29:31 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

At this point, I think if everyone decided the recession was over, it would be over. It seems to me to be more about psychology right now than anything else, but perhaps I am missing a few key elements of this whole thing. Whenever I read this kind of thought, I remember the "classic" division of (military) intelligence analysis - Capabilities vs. Intentions. The focus there is always placed on measuring capabilities, since they change more slowly than intentions can. Worst case projections are based on a combination of capabilities and hostile intentions; expected cases combine capabilities and assumptions of current intentions. Intentions, however (or our PERCEPTION of them) can shift overnight. That digression sets up my point about your comment: the feeling is spreading that the capabilities of the economy at large have rebounded, and the only thing holding back a market recovery is current sentiment. I've felt that way since about December. Once the feelings shift ... look out above! In short, I agree with you, and I'm seeing that thought shared very widely now. - Mitch