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To: yard_man who wrote (150262)	2/8/2002 3:51:18 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 436258

I can believe that a very large proportion of holders of puts with a horizon of six months or less do end up losing money. My own experience with LEAPS is that the markets are so fickle, and fluctuate to such extremes over a two-year-or-more period, that if one is willing to settle for gains of 50% or less, one may well succeed in getting out with a profit. Of course, I wouldn't touch even LEAP puts unless I was convinced that the market was drastically overvalued so that the odds were in my favor. "Drastically overvalued" for me means P/Es of 50 or higher on an individual stock that seems unlikely to enjoyed unlimited 20% per year growth forever--or P/Es of 25 on indices.