Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10203)	2/8/2002 4:07:06 PM
From: organicgerry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T. -- what time is this released? It's dated as of 2/05 The S&P bounced off support at 1080, while XAU bounced off resistance at 70. I think next week we'll see a nice rally in the S&P while gold retests support at $292.

To: J.T. who wrote (10203)	2/8/2002 5:36:14 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

... WOW J.T. ... what a rally for the SPH2 to close at 1096 ... after it made three failed attempts to get down through 1080 today, it headed north hard and fast ... now we have a solid up day after five straight down days ... do we now rally? ... and if we do, will it get past 1120 (and even up to and through the 200 DMA)? ... or will it falter at 1120, head back down and challenge 1077, and possibly 1054? ... ... or does it head straight back down for another test of 1077? ... ___________________________________ ... I read the three articles by Anirvan Banerji of ECRI with interest ... (1) ... Mr Banerji called the coming recession correctly on 09/13/00, but got it right for the wrong reasons (in my opinion) ... food and energy price inflation leading to "a sharp slowdown in consumer spending" and consequently, a recession (was his call) ... and wrong ... we have not had a real slow down in consumer spending even yet ... but we will ... (2) ... all of the writings - including "a special free look" - seem more in tune with a sales pitch to get readers to subscribe to RealMoney.com or to sell services for ECRI ... not that I am saying anything negative about ECRI ... I was not previously familiar with them ... ___________________________________ ... as to why I continue to be biased negatively on both the economy and equities (both U.S. and the world) ... not in order of importance, but just as I thought of them ... and even though you did not ask ... <G> ... valuations of equities are very high relative to the end of other bear markets ... ... the housing market has hardly noticed the economic slow down and is so strong, that it has nothing to recover from ... in fact, it is due to slump and probably will ... ... ditto for sales of autos ... ... both corporate debt and consumer debt are extraordinarily high ... ... we have not had a major bank crisis yet based on debt, but we will... ... the entire "world" is in a recession at the same time ... ... the dollar is much too strong relative to U.S. balance of payments ... ... Japan is not helping anyone ... ... profits are not going to improve by much for quite a long time ... end of 2002, beginning of 2003 at the earliest ... ... there will be more Enrons as we move forward ... hopefully not as bad ... ... how will consumers drive the economy forward when they are already deeply in debt? ... is there any logic to just one quarter of negative GDP after the biggest bull market and equity bubble in history ... ... I constantly hear comparisons of the current period to all the previous recessions and bear markets since WWII .. when we are in the middle of a period much more like the booms and busts of the mid and late 1800s through the 1930s (and no, I do NOT expect to have unemployment reach 25% as it did in the 30s) ... ... and a last personal note FWIW ... I sold almost all my stocks in January of 2000 ... I have had solid success buying S&P puts beginning in July of 2000 .... my net gains were 218% in 1999, 29% in 2000 and 17% in 2001 ... (about 80% of it in IRAs) ... and I am 75% cash ... Ken Wilson

To: J.T. who wrote (10203)	2/10/2002 11:58:09 AM
From: justwhatuwant	Respond to of 19219

> COT Report: > Wow look at this the commercials increased gold short > 14,500 contracts and decreased long positions by 12,000 contracts: Interesting note on this ... last week comms had a long increase of 11,877. Looks like they took profits on the recent rise. Since mid-Nov the gold comm bears have been increasing their contracts. Since mid-Dec they have not reduced their short position (week-over-week). A similar situation occurred during 9/11. In mid-Aug they went heavily short (and fast) and got caught by 9/11 rise. They held short until the dip down at end of October when they recoverd even or for small loss. So it looks like either they are right and this is it for gold and they sell even more. Or they are wrong and we get more bullish comms going long and they capitulate and gold rises hard and fast. Next week price action and COT will be most telling. IMHO, of course.

To: J.T. who wrote (10203)	2/10/2002 12:11:25 PM
From: justwhatuwant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

> COT Report: > Minor change in S & P: Since contract rollover in Dec things have been subdued. Before the swings at very end of Jan and beginning of Feb the shorts increased by 7882 and barely reduced themselves this report. They obviously believe in more downside bu the lack of more shorts shows lack of conviction for more downside. OTOH, the longs are slowly increasing with lack of great enthusiasm as well. More chopping action for the time being? IMHO, of course.