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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gator II who wrote (6555)	2/8/2002 5:09:05 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

Russian co-operation with Opec 'short-lived' By Hugh Carnegy in New York Published: February 5 2002 02:23 \| Last Updated: February 5 2002 03:11 Russian co-operation with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut oil exports is likely to be short-lived, according to the head of one of Russia's biggest oil producers. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chief executive of Yukos, Russia's second largest producer, said both the government and the private sector oil companies had "many reasons not to restrict exports". "We are fighting [with Opec] for the same market - naturally one of us is going to be upset. It would be silly to pretend that Opec doesn't exist. But to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Opec is impossible. Customers are more important," he told the FT in an interview. Russia reluctantly agreed in December to cut exports by 150,000 barrels a day during the first quarter of this year after coming under strong pressure from Opec to assist in moves to bolster world oil prices. But Mr Khodorkovsky, attending the World Economic Forum in New York, made it clear this was unlikely to last as companies like Yukos were increasing production aggressively and the government wanted to avoid the negative economic impact of restricting exports. He said the government and oil industry chiefs would meet in March to discuss medium term output targets. These were likely rise to 8m-9m barrels a day in the 2003-2005 period from the current level of 7m bpd. Mr Khodorkovsky said the strategic role of Russia in the global oil market had been re-assessed by the west since the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. Russia could in effect act as a "safety valve" on oil prices for the US. "Russia has its place and its place is quite significant as a back-up source of oil. As soon as the price goes over $25 a barrel Russian oil immediately starts appearing on US markets. This back-up role is something Russia is perfectly capable of playing. It is important and should be taken into consideration." He added that the role of Russia "might be even more important" for Europe. "Europe wants to have long-term confidence in its sources of energy at reasonable prices - and Russia wants exactly the same thing." But Mr Khodorkovsky said the Russian oil industry was also vulnerable to very low oil prices because of its high development costs and long and rigid supply lines. He said the US and Europe should therefore help to ensure long-term contracts for Russian oil in return for benefiting from Russia's role as a safety valve. Mr Khodorkovsky said Yukos was interested in making acquisitions in foreign oil properties in partnerships with western oil companies to extend its international reach and to gain experience in offshore oil development. Big Dog's fav PKD is drilling for the Russians BTW

To: Gator II who wrote (6555)	2/8/2002 8:44:00 PM
From: kormac	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206191

Russia produced in 2000 6,325,000 b/d of oil and in 2001 it produced 9 percent more, 6,895,000 b/d, according to the OGJ. The total for Eastern Europe and FSU is 7,896,200 in 2000 and 8.8 percent more in 2001. viz. 8,593,700. Russia's proven reserves are 48,573,000,000 bbls. Thus more than twice of those of USA. Compare these to SA's at 259,250,000,000 bbls. Iraq has 112,500,000,000 bbls and Iran has 89,700,000,000 bbls. To the lifting costs one must add the "social cost". During the last ten years or longer, I believe that SA managed a budget surplus only in 2000. Many of Iran's fields are aging and its production dropped 15 percent between 2000 and 2001. It produced 3,180,000 b/d last year. Many of its giant fields are in secondary recovery. Both Russians and Chinese are engaged with Iraq and developing Iraqi fields. It is the only country to be able to challenge SA in the long term having 112,500,000,000 b of reserves. That is, if SA will experience a civil war and Iraqis will be able to overthrow Saddam, Iraq will emerge as the leader of OPEC. The next 5 years will be crucial and the need for OPEC to exist will disappear, as more and more of OPEC countries will not be able to grow production and depletion in the rest of the world will take hold. This is true for Indonesia today and likely to be the case for Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela in a couple of years. best, Seppo