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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (28890)	2/9/2002 2:53:00 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

i have since the beginning of year been studyimg momentum.FWIW,the momentum decreased today on the COMPX from -205 to -213.This ,per discipline,this negates today's move as a bullish move,it in fact is confirmation of more bad to come as up price and down momentum is a bearish divergence. BTW,as ever,never fails,never,the press releases today refer to late rally as bargain hunting.I have yet to see in a standard press release ever "late rally today driven by short covering for weekend,taking their profits after a very good week for the shorts":) But i have to smile that after 5 consecutive down days the number of people asking is this it,the turn-around?? The downtrend channel is still fully intact. I have seen far too many short covering rallies after mid-day Friday when in a downtrend to ever be impressed. If the rally had started at the bell and kept rolling that's a totally different matter. The fact that the market internals were good in this circumstance,can not be evaluated as a bullish indicator. also ,from past year,a momentum below -400 would be likely reversal signal. Curiousity,mo was -260 on 9/10, -307 on 9/11 and -409 on 9/21 but - 461 om 4/4/2001---but even that -460 was not the low of 2001.First negative momentum of year occurred on 1/17 when COMPX closed at 1985 and has been moving downwards since.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (28890)	2/9/2002 4:37:23 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, maybe the 1720 range (actually 1726 was one of my preferred landing points in December due to some important trend lines) will work out, as it is about halfway between 1660 and 1750. I agree we need better sentiment readings to cement that as a local low. One missing element this week was a significant spike in the VIX/VXN. We also need to have the BPNDX in bearish territory, which it is not now. The SOXX must do a 50% re-trace, and some H&S formations still need to be resolved on some key stocks. Obviously your model is quite advantageous for trading, so it would be nice if the turnips' scenario works out. As far as being too bearish, I just watch the indicators and look for signs of impending reversal. I'm actually looking forward to buying AVCI again at 1.35 or less and watching it go to $3.00 again. That is one crazy penny stock. As for the top in April/May, I believe we could also get a lower high like 2065. I guess we'll have to wait and see.