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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Moominoid who wrote (14682)2/9/2002 12:56:17 AM
From: Moominoid  Respond to of 74559
 
My parent's US stock positions are (all advised by me):

BRK.B
EWA
JBX
JNY
KELYA
LE
MDY
MSFT
SPY
SWY
UIS

I think we'll sell KELYA (the third position we took back in 1998 - we have also had AAPL and CMB now JPM both exited at large profits. KELYA has been a loser, not the kind of stock I would choose now) and SPY (MDY should continue to outperform it I think) and buy NEM.

I checked a few numbers:

Forward consensus P/E is 34 but EBITDA return on assets is a good 10%. That is my favorite benchmark measure of potential profitability. Price to EBITDA is 12.

NEM has a classic multiyear ABC correction till last year... textbook Elliott.

My Mom will probably complain she can't see the share price in The Jerusalem Post :) I told her she can buy the International Herald Tribune now and then if she wants to check it. Wall Street Journal Europe is also available. I want her to get a computer and e-mail/web access too. She says there is nowhere to put the computer... She used computers in her last years of work, so it's not like she is scared of them (she is 70, my Dad 85).

EWA was already a proxy gold position. We have lost a little on it but should do well I think.

David



To: Moominoid who wrote (14682)2/9/2002 10:54:43 AM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Interesting to note that all this is occuring at a time when virtually the entire western world of investors has sold their investment holdings of gold over the years. Investment in the sector is virutally zero in the average portfolio.

DAK



To: Moominoid who wrote (14682)2/9/2002 1:18:18 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi David, <<a few hours of sleep>> thinking about gold does have that effect on me as well. According to Maurice, it is because I am a gold reptile losing money on cash, or some such thing, because it is much more preferable to not win money on CDMA:0)
Chugs, Jay



To: Moominoid who wrote (14682)2/9/2002 2:30:05 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi David, <<US gold reserves are approximately 10000 tonnes which are worth $US 100billion>> Better still, I believe the market cap of all publicly traded gold mining companies (and attributable gold mining subsidiaries of general mining companies) tally up to no more than USD 40 billion.

<<how to actually buy/store physical gold in reasonable quantities>>
Call the Aussie mint for wholesale info. Premium over spot should be less than USD 10/oz. A 1 foot x 1 foot x 3 feet bank safe deposit box will hold enough for most folks to retire on. The box, when full, is impossible for one guy to move. Alternatively, buy a burial plot and entomb gold in quick setting cement during middle of night.

<<I retain an aversion to real physical assets>>
This particular physical asset is beautiful. Hold it up to the candle light. Turn slowly one way, then another. Gently set it down on velvet tablecloth, rejoining it with its siblings. Stack them up. Shuffle the stacks around. Count the stacks. Arrrgh. Set wife or girlfriend against kitchen counter.

One caution. During times of panic, governments (any and all governments) tend to outlaw gold ownership, because they do not believe it is good for the people. When the KMT Nationalists were planning to pull out from the Mainland China in 1948, they made gold ownership punishable by death.

Chugs, Jay



To: Moominoid who wrote (14682)2/9/2002 2:52:35 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
The United States Treasury holds roughly 25% of all the gold ever mined in the world - but I think it's only 8,600 tonnes, and all the gold in the world is about 125,000-130,000 tonnes.