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To: JRI who wrote (30761)	2/9/2002 1:08:52 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 209892

I don't see how one can reconcile these 2 positions. Personally I don't believe we have begun a 5 down yet, except possibly in the NDX which may be in a leading diagonal. If we get a spring rally....is this latest down move an a-b-c correction (and the spring rally is the "C" brother leg to the "A" 1387-2098)...that doesn't make sense to me either, for I thought you weren't looking for new highs (on the spring rally) I do believe this move down will be an abc in the COMP/SOX. I don't know if we get new highs though. Zeev has the idea of a double top and I could see that. Possibly we get an ending diagonal for the entire Sept move. If we are to launch back up, it needs to come from lower levels as complacency will return to quickly to get to new highs form here IMO. Unless the VIX can drop to 16. Finally, you ARE in the group expecting this thing to die out around Wednesday and 1860 COMP (+/- 10 pts?) before next down leg, right? (and THEN spring rally?) Yes, I don't think this rally gets far. I believe non-tech is in a flat off the 30th and tech is in a running flat off the 22nd. Means 5 waves up here for both indices. Non-tech may flirt with DOW 10K even.