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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kormac who wrote (6579)	2/9/2002 7:40:11 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 206182

Yea Seppo, the non-OPEC peak is getting very close. As far as I can tell, the Russian companies are basically money-machines. Yukos and Lukoil (#2, and #1 Russian oil companies) seem to be able to fund most of their investments with internally generated cash flows ($4-5 billion a year). Luckily the export tariffs for oil are reduced when oil prices fall. Just recently the export tariff was reduced by $3 per barrel because of lower average prices. The tariffs are reviewed every two months or so. So, as far as the oil companies are concerned, exporting oil with WTI trading at $20 is not much worse than when WTI is $25 with the higher tariff. The Russian government still seems to have a budget surplus even with the lower oil prices. Part of the reason is that the volume of oil is up, but the other part is that reforms have increase tax revenues across all industries.

To: kormac who wrote (6579)	2/9/2002 8:10:00 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206182

seppo, Simmons has been telling the same story for the last ten years. Oil reserves are a function of price and technology. You can find a lot more oil today for less dollars, even though you are finding smaller reserves due to seismic and other technology changes. We seem to have a rolling scenario where we are running out of oil in the next twenty years, and twenty years later it's still 20 years away. Someday it will be a problem, but I don't think you or I have to worry about it. If this weeks lack of NG draws are due to a new offshore pipeline coming on line last week, how many others are out there. I'm watching the NG storage numbers carefully this Wednesday, but am beginning to believe the next up cycle in energy starts in the second half of 2003 instead of this fall. Oil will be selling in the 15-18 range very soon, and NG should be selling in the 1.50-.80 range this spring. If NG supply doesn't drop off fast this summer, we will most likely retest the OSX lows this year. The war factor is the only thing holding up oil stocks right now. JMHO, Jim