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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (28964)	2/10/2002 4:02:05 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I believe max pain (at least those max pain figures I posed, as opposed to IQAUTO's) was bang on for two consecutive months. Others might (and have) dispute that, but mainly by including thinly optioned issues. We have been more or less sideways for those months. I see no reason for max pain not to work here. I was thinking AMAT might take the market down after it reports. If that happens, can we still get back to 37 1/2? That is the debate I have with myself. What if INTC ups guidance right after AMAT takes it down. The next morning would work as they could trigger a huge short covering rally. But I still have problems of a sustained rally without a decent pullback in chips. Thus, I am in somewhat of a bind of not being able to tie the whole mess together to in a coherent picture. I will state that if we take out QQQ 35 on the downside at expiry we are going to do a huge fall off the cliff due to delta hedging. Somehow the "rabbit needs to be pulled out of the hat" while chips underperform but not crash the market. The only possible answer again is MSFT, bios, and garbage but can those rise if AMAT crushed chips. It is interesting that there is very little option interest either way in KLAC and AMAT. Thus they are "unconstrained" and free to move strongly in one direction or other. No max pain views this month except on the biggies. QQQ INTC CSCO MSFT Add SEBL to that list. 35 looks likely M