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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (14781)	2/10/2002 10:42:55 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

FT: Recovery has begun say G7 finance ministers By Ed Crooks, Economics Editor, in Ottawa Published: February 9 2002 23:29 \| Last Updated: February 10 2002 14:13 The recovery in the world economy has already begun, and the US and Europe can expect to see growth strengthening as the year wears on, according to the finance ministers and central bankers who met in Ottawa at the weekend for the meeting of the Group of Seven large economies. "On the part of all participants, including the IMF [International Monetary Fund], we found that people were more optimistic than they were three months ago," said David Dodge, governor of the central bank of Canada. "The signs are mounting that we've turned the corner." Paul O'Neill, the US Treasury secretary, said: "We see more signs every day indicating a recovery is under way." He repeated his prediction that US growth would rise to an annual rate of 3 to 3.5 per cent by the fourth quarter of the year. European officials expressed concern about imbalances in the US economy, and the high level of equity prices, but their overall assessment was similarly positive. Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Central Bank, said: "The risk of recession in the world economy, which could not be fully ruled out in late 2001, seems now to have faded away." He added that at present interest rates, he expected growth in the eurozone to return to its long-run trend rate estimated by the ECB at between 2 and 2.5 per cent towards the end of the year. Only Japan gave few grounds for optimism at the meeting of representatives from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. When Masajuro Shiokawa, Japan's finance minister, told the meeting he expected economic output to stop declining in the next fiscal year, which begins in April, and then grow by 1 per cent the year after, there were no comments or questions from the room. Mr O'Neill said: "It is very important that Japan be an engine of growth for the world economy: it's up to them to do that." But the G7 offered no new ideas for its revival. "There wasn't anything else to say," Mr O'Neill said. On Argentina, Paul Martin of Canada said the G7 was "very supportive of the steps that have been taken by the Argentine government", including the floating of the peso. However, he wanted Argentina to work closely with the IMF to draw up a sustainable economic programme. Jorge Remes Lenicov, the Argentine economy minister, is expected to begin talks on Monday with the International Monetary Fund in Washington about the steps to secure a new package of assistance. There was no breakthrough on the international disagreement over the US plan to pay more aid to poor countries in the form of grants rather than development loans. But officials involved in the talks said there had been some progress towards a compromise, involving a rise in the proportion of grants paid to the very poorest countries, or for specific social projects. Several ministers urged an increase in rich country assistance to the developing world. Gordon Brown, the UK chancellor of the exchequer, presented figures showing that the real value of aid to sub-Saharan Africa had fallen from $20bn in 1990 to $13bn last year. Mr Martin said ministers "recognise the necessity of increasing foreign aid, and we think as well that the capacity to absorb that aid is very much related to sound governance." He added it was important that the UN conference on financing for development in Monterrey, Mexico in March should be a success.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (14781)	2/10/2002 11:24:20 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay: Take a look at the web site where I found the source material. I am surprised that these guys make this stuff available on the web. It is proprietary research for which the original client probably paid well. I think there is a solid case that there is little downside to gold at this point, and that the projected depletion of existing mines will only be replaced by new production if the POG stays around $300. A lower price will therefore be self-correcting as total output will fall as mines are closed and not replaced. 2003 appears to be some kind of turning point, with an end to the secular trend of declining POG due to existing mine depletion. The $64,000 question is will some exogenous event break the strong causal relationship between average production cost and POG that has existed for more than a decade. I can not predict the answer to this question. Others can (or think they can), apparently. We shall see. The most interesting part of the data addresses WHICH gold miners to buy. You have to look at the original material to see this, but it very clearly shows which companies to buy and which not to buy. The #1 buy is Freeport McMoran Gold & Copper, apparently.