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To: axial who wrote (12121)	2/10/2002 4:06:43 PM
From: Dexter Lives On	Respond to of 12823

We both started looking for the resurgence in (ahem!) areas of telecom other than 3G, a couple of years ago. Time has only confirmed the rapid and continued desertion of the sector. Hi Jim, Yes the best learned lessons are the ones learned the hard way <smile> - but there is always time to: 1) thoroughly question information from all sources 2) identify major inconsistencies in trends and assign credibility to different developments 3) place your bets in such a way as to hedge against unpredictable outcomes and benefit from the more likely outcomes Companies with a lot of debt or reliance on heavy capital investments, where the model is unproven, should continue to be avoided. This will likely be the case for another 2-3 years, minimum. Thanks for your insights/comments. BR, Rob

To: axial who wrote (12121)	2/10/2002 11:09:34 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Anyone who has put their ear to the ground since 2000/2001, and listened for signs of a resurgence in sectoral liquidity/capex has been disappointed. I agree with this statement when it comes to the wireline portion of telecom....but the wireless sector never saw the wholesale cuts in capex during the last telecom. Capex for a variety of wireless carriers has actually increased over the last two years....and is expected to increase again next year. I will be looking for cuts to capex as the first sign of real worries about liquidity. I will have to look at Telefonica to see if Rob's article indicates some type of drastic cut or just some cost savings from sharing 3G basestations. Anyway...I think I will have to just agree to disagree with you and Rob. The next 18 months will give us the answer to this question....at least I hope it will. However, I still think the numbers coming out of Korea are important to look at. For myself, there have always been three questions when it came to 3G.... 1) Would the various technologies work (1x, GPRS, 1xEV-DO, W-CDMA and EDGE)? 2) Is their actual consumer demand for wireless data to the handset? 3) Can the carriers finance the 3G networks? The Korean roll-out of 1x gives me partial answers to questions 1 and 2. The 3G space needs an affirmative answer to all 3 to become a success.... Slacker