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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kormac who wrote (6595)	2/11/2002 11:19:10 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Seppo, in general I agree with what you are saying - particularly about the coming resource wars. I also in general think Yamani has lost it with his stone age comment - he will be right some day when we have an energy alternative, but he's far from right at this time. But, I take issue with one statement: >>>If the economic recession is longer than now thought, it will mask the inability of substantial increases in production.<<< We have shown in the last couple of mini-booms that a production increase of just 1/2 percent is enough to tank the commodity prices of oil or gas, and we have also shown that 1/2 percent is really no problem to achieve. We've done it the last two times with a dearth of experienced personnel and a shortage of equipment - most of which is getting quite long in the tooth. Just think what we could do with a real and sustained boom that brought back large capex programs and wage increases to lure people back to the patch. This is what sets up these phony gluts & shortages we cycle through, and sets up the cyclical nature of these stocks. It's a wonderful gift if you can sense the trend, but it's a damn hard thing to sense - even if you work in the industry. I just suggest you don't fall for the "no meaningful production increase" line, because we could certainly get one if the money were there. These statements are coming from a contract driller's point of view. Sharp