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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (22179)	2/11/2002 9:22:06 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi Michael, I'm not a student of the oil industry. I do run every weekend with a very close friend who works up financial analysis of their many assets. Well before the collapse, I asked Him about Enron.He said with a very negative opinion that Enron was a well run Oil pipe line that chose to sell off their real working assets and wanted to play big boy in the oil world by becoming this great dynamic trading medium. His spin on their approach was folly. Exxon views the value of trading the commodity as something not worth generating more than a 10 %premium.If it was worth more than that - those who own thwe commodity would choose to do it themselves.They certainly have the capability - they discovered the reserves, they pump the reserves, they own the reserves - They can control the trading value by simply holding the oil and go direct. Enron was vastly overleveraged in a commodity that was impacted by a deflationary influence in it's price.I happen to think that Enron never saw it coming.My 2 cents worth says it was Vldimir Putin who told OPEC he'll ship whatever amount of oil to USA he wants to. This shifted the pricing power of the Cartel and the price went down.That hard to anticipate event, shook the price of oil and I suspect Enron was betting on the price being stable to higher.That mistake combined with excess leverage dropped the house of cards quicker than a three foot put. The rest is history.Enron wanted to be a big boy without the assets. That's a quick lesson for failure unless you are good. They weren't good, they lost all their marbels and now everyone is shocked. I wished I had been smart enough to trade that good advice from my friend. But like I say I don't trade a sector I don't follow. Bob The other companies are very solid - Exxon is the Amat of the global oil world.Haliburton is a wonderful company (killed incorrectly by most in this town )by asbestos.