To: Ken Benes who wrote (81863 ) 2/11/2002 10:50:24 PM From: Richnorth Respond to of 116762 US planning for campaign against Saddam Military campaign relying on air power and potential defections within Iraqi military now under consideration WASHINGTON - Warnings have been issued, the gauntlet thrown down. Now, serious planning is under way within the Bush administration for a campaign against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The administration expects to complete a long-delayed Iraq policy review by the time Vice-President Dick Cheney makes his nine-nation Middle East tour next month so that he can outline American plans to Arab leaders, according to senior officials here. While it insists that any denouement in Iraq is still a long way off, the broad outlines of favoured options have begun to emerge as confidence is bolstered by the successful blitz campaign in Afghanistan. At the heart of the policies are two strategic decisions: First, containment of Mr Saddam is no longer sufficient, the Iraq problem must be solved. Second, Washington is prepared to push beyond the limitations imposed by international sentiment, Arab public opinion and even the original United Nations (UN) resolutions that opened the way for Operation Desert Storm 11 years ago to force Iraq out of Kuwait. In view of this, three broad scenarios are emerging: The diplomatic route, working through the UN to pass 'smart sanctions' and to press Baghdad to allow the return of inspectors who would look for and dismantle any chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles. A military campaign, probably relying heavily on air power and potential defections within the Iraqi military. A tightening of the political noose around Mr Saddam's government, with more coercive actions by neighbouring states and the international community. Despite allied opposition, a major United States military effort is no longer out of the question, Bush administration officials say. 'There's an evolving consensus that a sizeable US military activity will be required,' said a well-placed source. Even US Secretary of State Colin Powell, long the most cautious voice among the principals crafting policy on Iraq, is on board. The policy review is exploring the possibility of new anti-Saddam opposition inside and outside Iraq, US officials say. Consensus is growing behind broadening the makeup of the US-funded Iraqi National Congress, or INC, and encouraging the coalition to find new leadership. Another idea gaining currency in Washington is turning to the Iraqi military as allies, according to administration officials. The new thinking suggests that a US offensive would lead to thousands of defections by Iraqi troops, as happened during Operation Desert Storm. Defectors might then be converted into an anti-Saddam force. The former Bush and Clinton administrations believed that Mr Saddam's downfall depended on senior officers in his inner circle who might be disillusioned enough to turn on their boss. But a decade of waiting for the generals to act has produced nothing significant. In contrast, key US officials now contend, the rank and file in the military might fold easily under serious military pressure - and defect to the US side. --Los Angeles Times straitstimes.asia1.com.sg