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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (36138)	2/11/2002 1:02:48 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68481

Trying to weigh the risk of going against AMAT and EMLX here.. a lot is anticipated on AMAT pulling out the semi-equip worry. If its not big it will probably sell the news for a 4 point dip. EMLX looks like a hanging dbl top at 40 support.

To: j g cordes who wrote (36138)	2/11/2002 3:24:06 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68481

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMAT Coming Out of Hibernation -- 10:00 AM EST by Seth Martin IDEAadvisor.com is offering IDEAtrader content FREE through our website for a limited time! It's technical and fundamental analysis you won't find anywhere else. Applied Materials [AMAT:Nasdaq] spent the Q1 cutting its costs so its low revenue rate does not result in large operational losses. This effort should be successful, and with signs from the company that orders are going to be on the rise in the Q2, the stock of the semiconductor equipment leader may come out of this report, due late Tuesday, in good shape and with a lot of Wall Street support. We are maintaining a Negative rating due to valuation concerns. However, the purpose of this preview is to give investors an idea of what may be moving the stock in the short term. For Q1:02, Applied has guided toward a slight loss or slight profitability, versus current average expectations of a loss of $0.01 per share, according to First Call. Revenues are expected at $1bn ($1.02 is the average analyst estimate), down 21% sequentially. Total new orders are expected to be flat to down slightly from the Q4's $1.1bn. Backlog should be flat at $2.73bn - though even a slight rise would be a positive for investors anxious about the next couple quarters. Orders are a constructive proxy for sales about one quarter out, so a flat reading of orders in the Q1 would suggest a similar ($1.1bn) sales level in the Q2. However, we believe that if Applied Materials is using its strength in Asia to create new orders for the next-generation 300mm equipment, it could have a more positive outlook for Q2 orders - that would no doubt have a positive near-term impact on the stock. Gross margins will rise slightly from the Q4's 37.1% as Applied works to get the break-even sales level down below the Q4:01 level of $1.1bn. Job cuts of 10%, or 1700 employees, in the Q4 (after 2,000 were cut in Q3) should help the company maintain operating margins near break-even. We already know that Intel [:Nasdaq] will be spending $5.5bn this year, down 25% from 2001. Including the other top 10 chip equipment spenders, (including IBM [IBM:NYSE], Micron [MU:NYSE], and AMD [AMD:NYSE] in the US; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [TSM:NYSE], United Microelectronics [UMC:NYSE], Fujitsu, and Samsung in Asia; and ST Micro [STM:NYSE] and Philips [PHG:NYSE] in Europe) who have already estimated a combined $12bn in spending this year, we have a total of $17bn-$17.5bn. That's down about 21% from $22.2bn in spending by these same companies in 2001, down 36% from 2000, but still above the depressed 1999 spending levels of $15.5bn by the members of this group.A large equipment supplier like Applied will argue that the industry-wide slowdown has given it the opportunity to gain market share as the largest chipmakers, seeking to save money, turn to the largest chip equippers to provide comprehensive solutions for expensive projects like constructing cleanrooms. And in the Q1 conference call we are likely to hear more about Applied's momentum in the 300mm systems, even if demand is depressed right now. Valuation continues to be our motivation for a Sell rating. It's now fairly likely that we will see some near-term strength if Applied experienced a bump up in orders in Q1 and, even more important, forecasts sequentially higher Q2 orders (suggesting a rebound in sales in the Q3). But at 32x relatively optimistic fiscal 2003 estimates, and 4.78x 2003 sales estimates that assume a strong rebound for the industry over depressed 2002 levels, the stock carries no discount to peers or to the broad S&P 500. As we have said before, should the stock sink back toward the late September/early October $30 area, we would consider changing our stance. Market Timing From the Technical Desk On Jan. 9, we said: "Applied Materials [AMAT: Nasdaq] broke through a 20-month downtrend line in early Dec. 2001. Although the breakout did not come on spectacular volume, it has been able to hold its gains while consolidating. On Jan. 9, it broke through the upper end of the consolidation area, which had resistance at $46. Volume was average once again. However, the uptrend remains intact and we expect further upside probing at this point. Therefore, IDEAglobal expects Applied Materials to rise to $53.50 in two to three months." We maintain our previous outlook on Applied Materials. It is trading at $42.30. Risk Tolerance ***( Low risk, *****High risk)

To: j g cordes who wrote (36138)	2/11/2002 3:39:41 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68481

Market breadth data is exhibiting an extreme near term oversold condition for both the NYSE and Nasdaq. A bounce in the coming days, particularly with options expiration on Friday and a high put/call ratio, is to be expected. The Nasdaq has thus far held its 50% fibonacci retrace of the September to January rally and that may be all that is needed to prompt some buying in the coming days and give us a decent sized bounce here. If the market is to bounce now is the time for an Asian storm is brewing and could hit the markets in a few weeks. A pump by the Street to unload positions on Joe Average is just what traders should expect. The mainstream media’s absence of coverage of the looming Japanese crisis continues to amaze us (well actually it doesn’t). It seems quite evident that the media is yet again failing to do at least a half-way decent job of reporting news that could potentially derail the market here. For those who are unaware, deposit insurance in Japan is scheduled to END on March 31st. So what you may say. Who cares about Japan, its old news! That is same reasoning behind the poor media coverage of this upcoming event. Unless traders have been living in a hole over the last week they should have noticed the dramatic run-up in gold prices and the strange trading activities in the currency markets. The excuses used to explain these moves by the CNBS clowns centered around the drop in the US markets. Very little mention has been made of the large pickup in gold buying by the Japanese as the March 31st deadline approaches. Japan’s banks are sick and until some of them ! collapse the situation there will not improve. A Japanese banking crisis has the potential to spark another Asian Crisis. While the odds of this occurring are low, traders still should be VERY mindful of the potential for disaster. Bank shares did pop late last week on rumors of a Bank of Japan bailout package. The large moves were more of a short covering move than anything else. Traders should keep a very close eye on Japan and the Nikkie. Last week some of the top Japanese banks had their credit rating cut by Moody’s and S&P, an ominous sign of things to come. biz.yahoo.com Here is a great article that sums up exactly what may be in-store for us in the next several weeks and explains in simple words what is going on: aei.org Weekly Swing Trade: This weekend we bring you a new feature, The 10% Swing Trade. Every week we will bring our subscribers a profile we believe will return 10% during the next week. Our first 10% Swing Trade is SUNW. SUNW closed on Friday at $9.75. We are targeting a move to $10.73 this week. Using the recent high of $14.41 and Thursday low of $9.17 we get a 38% fibonacci bounce of $11.17. With the market looking like it will bounce higher next week SUNW makes for a logical play. SUNW chart to consider: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb200!b30!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G As a bonus we have also chosen ELN as another 10% Swing Trade for the coming week. ELN closed on Friday at $14.80. We are targeting a move to $16.28 in the coming week. Late on Thursday the SEC announced it was investigating the accounting practices of ELN. Initially, the stock reacted negatively, dropping to an intraday low of $12.50, where ELN successfully put in a double bottom and bounced nicely higher into the close, ending the day at $14.80. Short covering has only begun here and a 10% pop should be easily attainable in the coming week. ELN should trend higher over the near term and a re-visit to the $20’s is a possibility. After all, only one month ago analysts pegged the buyout price for ELN at $18 billion. ELN chart to consider: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb200!b30!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G buysellshort.com