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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (16302)	2/12/2002 6:54:44 AM
From: ayn rand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18998

HDI at nosebleed levels as per WSJ: After Roaring Through the '90s, Harley's Engine Could Sputter Heard on the Street By KEN BROWN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Updated February 12, 2002 12:01 a.m. EST "But critics say those gains may be unsustainable and that the company's powerful growth engines may be sputtering. With its shares trading at 38 times the past 12 months' earnings, the stock is expensive relative to the overall market. At 4 p.m. Monday, the shares were up 93 cents to $54.03 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, putting them near an all-time high of about $57, hit earlier this year. Even if the stock doesn't collapse, future gains from this point might be meager, the bears say." "The big concerns about Harley are that its sales will slow" "Critics see deeper problems for Harley. They say sales have slowed and that Harley has tried to mask the slowdown by pushing dealers to buy bikes they don't need -- known as channel stuffing" ..."The company disagrees" Another area of concern for the bears is the company's financing arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Finally, there is Harley's valuation. At its current price-to-earnings ratio of about 38, it is close to its highest point, 45, in the past five years. At those nosebleed levels, investors are assuming strong growth over the next several years. But if the recession persists, motorcycles, the critics say, are easily deferred purchases. Harley doesn't dispute that sales could be affected. "We always said we feel we are recession-resistant, not recession-proof," Mr. Ziemer says. online.wsj.com