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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (29310)	2/11/2002 4:24:32 PM
From: William B. Kohn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I initiated two short positons today selling naked calls on EMLX and MU. My thought is that EMLX has been looking week and with the downturn, the March calls (37.5) @ $6.80 may expire worthless giving me a decent return. Similarly although MU has been showing a great deal of strength, I cannot believe that it will continue given the TA that we've been discussing here. I sold the March 40's @ $1.80 That is how I'm planning to play the downturn that others here have been discussing. bill

To: ajtj99 who wrote (29310)	2/11/2002 4:54:52 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

at, p/c generally start rising just ahead of options expiration; that is what I recall as a pattern. Maybe that explains the bounce in the p/c but without the increase in vix,vxn. Maybe the VIX, VXN is more indicative of the fear levels right now. I believe that the cash inflows from the past 1 1/2 months have been sitting in cash at mutual funds who have been reluctant to buy. That could be working its way back into the market. I felt that AMAT is the positive suprise of the week and it looks like the market is anticipating it now. jmho.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (29310)	2/11/2002 7:07:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

From KISS on SI Anyone know the current P/C ratio? Some ultra-bull on CNBC came on and said it was time to go long because the ratio was .96, meaning nobody at all was buying calls anymore- just puts. I find this hard to believe. ======================================================================== Reply from Mish: All we know is the damn ratio. Nearly useless. If all the equity puts or index puts were for March, (or better yet June), the criminals could care less what the P/C ratio is today. After watching this for some time, I have concluded that it is meaningless (as a CURRENT indicator BY ITSELF). To know the "score" one must look at, and concentrate on current month options first, then look ahead to see if a picture can form. Oddly enough, I see tons of puts in March. And as of right now, I see max pain at QQQ 37 1/2 for Feb. Thus we rallied on Friday and today. No real buying today. Light volume. J6P is scared shitless and probably ought to be (but not scared enough to sell, just scared enough to not buy). With all the PUTs in March (I see max pain for the QQQ for March at about 40, I am trying to figure out how we get there with no volume. After expiry, panic induced selloff, then sharp rally perhaps. Right now, I have no firm conviction as to how we get there, but it seems like we headed for QQQ 40 in March. Can AMAT induce a panic selloff to QQQ 32 from which we rally to QQQ 40, or does delta hedging kick in and we just collapse after this expiry? If the latter, we could retest that "bottom" sooner than most people think. Comments appreciated. M