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To: sun-tzu who wrote (150719)	2/11/2002 8:39:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The only way we see 38.5 at expiry is if we go to 40 or higher shortly after IMHO. Max pain on QQQ is about 37 1/2 and I will give you 38 out of "graciousness" LOL Anything above that and the powers that be have hedged long and will drive us even higher (after expiry) before they unload. There is more than a reasonable chance that it all unwinds tommorrow afternoon IMHO. If AMAT sucks and warns, and we rise mightily into earnings, the powers that be can hedge short going into earnings and kill the rally. Some will call that a max pain failure but not me. If the crooks get us to max pain anytime durring expiry week, I call that a success. All they do then is hedge in the direction of failure or breakout. Thus we differ in scenarios. If you are correct, I say we continue up next week. If we hit right on the nose it is anyone's guess. If we stall at QQQ 36-37 and tank on AMAT, we have a serious decline on our hands and it will be short at will. We will not know until Wednesday. Possible outcome. Selloff on Wed, rally to max pain on thursday and friday. This leaves the most people guessing. But I see no possible catalyst for this (DELL perhaps) Thus:No likely way we see 38.5 QQQ on a Fri closing basis. Any rally to 38.5 in the ineterum seems unlikely as well (to me), given where we are. If your call is a huge ramp to 38.5 then selloff on Thursday and Friday, then I can buy that possibility but call it unlikely. But if you are correct and it does happen, and we selloff to 37.5 on Friday....DownTown on that. AMAT is the key. Still sticking to 38 max, 37 1/2 or 37 more likely. Wondering how we get to 38 if AMAT sucks, or how it stalls at 38 if AMAT is glowing. Could die on AMAT and rally on DELL? sheessh Also puzzled at Max Pain on MSFT at 65. Can they ramp that sucker another 4 points? M