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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bert who wrote (7629)	2/11/2002 8:38:32 PM
From: t4texas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

good link about COTs effectiveness thanks for posting the link about the cots. i have read about the commercials being net short all the way up in 1993, but the graph is quite, uhh, graphic. thanks.

To: Bert who wrote (7629)	2/12/2002 1:25:04 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

Bert, excellent link re the COTS and the comms. Using marketpit.com charts I concluded somewhat the same. The first thing I always looks for when gazing at charts is the degree of correlation. If it isn't very very good the usefulness is questionable. One very bad call can be quite damaging. My conclusion was the commercials were better ST traders, and maybe very short term, overall. But it appeared to me that they don't necessarily get the macro trend correct, by any means. Since I'm not a ST trader, I then don't care that much about what the comms do. I'm not a GATA freak, but maybe this could in a weird sort of way could lend more credence to some of their claims. If the comms get all the ST reversals, etc. correct, would not this make one suspicious of market intervention activities? Smells in any event. AND, in any event, one can easily notice they've been quite good of late. Finally, if the comms get on the wrong side of the macro trend, and this is clear, look out (and not below). IMHO.

To: Bert who wrote (7629)	2/12/2002 5:00:01 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Respond to of 36161

Excellent! I printed it out to save. Wayne

To: Bert who wrote (7629)	2/12/2002 9:44:43 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 36161

bert - thanks for the CoT link. I immediately puled up my charts to check if I could set up a signal. Everyone would like to be long at the dawn of a rally, or short in a breakdown. Pulled up my charts and could identify the 1993 moves. Worked that way also for 1996. (didn't in 1986). Then, May 2001 a fast one. Last time commercials became net short was Dec 28. Should we conclude that PoG with keep rallying as long as commercials increase their short position. Rather counter-intuitive for a contrarian. <g>