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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60291)	2/13/2002 4:17:06 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Limit sell orders placed: At 50 and 55. If both happen, I'll have sold the shares I bought last year at 30. My final lot, bought at 27.5, will probably go at 60 and 65. Not a prediction, just a contingency plan. This runup is just too much. When 2FQ02 numbers come out, in May, the trailing 12M sales is going to be about 4.59B. That number comes from adding up 4 quarterly results:1.33B,1.26B,1B, and 1B. The last number could be slightly, but only slightly, different. The others are known. With the stock at 50, that's a P/S of 9.3 With the stock at 65, that's a P/S of 12.1 Too high, way too high, even assuming the rosiest possible future. The earliest possible time when the trailing-12-month sales number starts going up, is 4FQ02, reported in 11/02. They have to have more than 1.26B in sales, to show a YOY increase. So, the main valuation metric I use, isn't going to get better, till then. Another way of looking at it: peak earnings of $3.50 in 2004 X PE of 20 = peak stock price of 70. When my last sell price is reached, we're almost to the peak cycle price I'm expecting. Not much upside left, unless the Bubble gets reInflated. I had thought I would hold these shares longer, but calculating these valuations is making me very, very nervous. When that happens, it's time to get out. Probably buy the shares back at 40 (if it happens).